It had been 2 weeks since Tsar Alexander I's funeral. After a thorough examination by the court physicians, Alexander was declared healthy, the cause of his collapse and bleeding eyes a complete mystery. Only Alexander knew the truth. His theory was that the funeral had acted as a trigger, recovering his fragmented memories. The sheer quantity of information had overwhelmed his young brain, forcing him into a short coma as a defense mechanism.
Since waking, he had been processing memories that weren't his. They were from the 21st century. The recall wasn't complete; there were many gaps, but he noticed the memories were slowly getting filled in with time. "Marco... that was his name? Or was it mine?" Alexander contemplated.
He now understood the nagging sense of familiarity he'd always felt. The people and events he was living through were things "he" had read about. Apparently, "he" was a historian who had earned his Ph.D. in his late twenties, with a research focus on Imperial Russia.
And if his memory served him right, the Russo-Persian War would start on July 8, 1826---in less than four months. Two months after that war ended, the Russo-Turkish War would commence.
Alexander wondered about the best course of action. Should he try to prevent these two wars? 'No, that's impossible,' he concluded. 'The Persians started the Russo-Persian War of 1826. Preventing it is out of the question.' He remembered that the Russo-Turkish War began because the Ottoman Empire had closed the Dardanelles Strait to Russian ships and revoked the Akkerman Treaty in retaliation for the Russian Imperial Navy's participation in the Battle of Navarino. His father would declare war on April 26, 1828. 'The Akkerman Treaty would be signed on October 7, 1826. The Ottomans gave Father the perfect justification for war. If I were to tell him not to declare war, he would see it as weakness or, worse, betrayal, since there isn't a good enough reason to avoid it.'
"Alex? Why aren't you eating?"
His mother's voice brought him out of his thoughts. From the outside, he had simply been staring at his empty plate.
"Ah, sorry, I was just thinking about something," he said. He took in the aroma of the glistening slices of smoked sturgeon and salmon. The rich, oceanic scent was underscored by deep, smoky undertones. He put some on his plate and ate it, savoring the silken, buttery richness that left a lingering taste of the sea in his mouth.
Next came the steaming shchi, a cabbage soup with an earthy aroma and a distinct sour tang from the sauerkraut. The soup was rich and hearty, with tender cabbage and meat that fell apart with a touch.
Alexander savored the various dishes. After finishing his meal, he wiped his mouth with a handkerchief and scanned the table, laden with meats, soups, and desserts. His sisters and parents were still eating. As the first to finish, he decided to have a light dessert while he waited for his father. He had something he wanted to discuss.
After his father finished and wiped his mouth with a handkerchief, Alexander began the conversation.
"Father, there is something I wish to tell you."
Nicholas, curious about what his son had to say, looked at him and gestured for him to continue. The rest of the family, also interested, perked up their ears.
"Around a year ago, forces under Aleksey Petrovich Yermolov seized the northern bank of Lake Gokcha and the territory of Balagh-lu."
"I am aware," Nicholas replied, wondering what his son was getting at.
"Then you should also be aware that the Persians consider these territories theirs. The seizure of these lands could be seen as a direct provocation and a potential staging ground for an attack on Erivan." Alexander took a deep breath. "What I am trying to say is, they will declare war."
"And you are so certain that you don't consider it a probability, but a certainty?"
"The seizure of these territories gives them a clear reason to go to war. The Qajar dynasty's court has a strong war faction with a strong desire to reclaim the lands lost in the first Russo-Persian War. That desire was aggravated because the Empire continued to seize territories even after the Treaty of Gulistan. Given all these points, not declaring war or putting up resistance would be seen as saying, 'We are weak-willed; come and annex us.' There is also the British Empire, which seeks to curtail Russian expansionism, especially in Central Asia, as they fear we will threaten India. I wouldn't be surprised if they support the Persians during the war with aid, further pushing Persia toward armed conflict. This is why I believe war with Persia is a certainty."
"Are you suggesting we should stop and return the seized territories to avoid war?" Nicholas asked, his tone hardening.
"No, on the contrary," Alexander hurried to explain. "I think the conflict should be continued. A war initiated by them will provide the Empire with the opportunity to seize the rest of the Caucasus from them. Allowing us to secure the border. That is why I believe the troops on the Persian border should be put on high alert, and reinforcements should be ready on standby if they are needed."
"You provide a compelling point, and I will see to it," Nicholas said, impressed by his son's ability to analyze the political situation so thoroughly.
"Which is why I would also like to be sent to the border."
Silence fell over the dining table. Both his parents spoke at the same time.
"No!"
"Absolutely not!"
"You fainted just a couple of months ago, and you want to go to a place with no physicians? What if something like that happens again? What if you catch a disease? Do you know how dangerous a battlefield can be?" A barrage of worries came from his mother, silencing Alexander.
Utterly defeated, he could only compromise, raising his arms in the air and saying. "I am confident I can pinpoint the Persian army's course of action if a war breaks out---where they would advance first and where they would lay siege. That's why I suggested going to the border; the information would reach me a lot faster. But since I cannot go, I want to ask if you, Father, are willing to hear my thoughts on the Persian army's possible course of action?"
Nicholas considered his son's suggestion and agreed. Perhaps he would be surprised once more. He found himself looking forward to his son's insights.
***
In a large room where two figures, Nicholas I and his son, Alexander, stand. At the center of the room is a large table with a detailed map of the Caucasus, showcasing the borders between Russia and Persia. The map is marked with terrain, roads, rivers, and the names of towns, cities, and fortresses. Figurines of yellow and red represent the Russian and Persian forces.
The room smelled of old paper and the rich scent of ancient wood. Bookshelves held tomes on military strategy, including classics like A Treatise on Courts Martial and Sun Tzu The Art of War. Nicholas and Alexander took their seats.
"First, I suggest we avoid any action that might reveal our true strength or readiness, allowing them to think their moment is opportune," Alexander began. "If not, we should try to conceal and downplay it as much as possible. While General Yermolov is capable, his forces of 3,500 will be overwhelmed by the anticipated speed of the Persian invasion. I doubt the Persians will issue a formal declaration of war; instead, they will incite the local Muslim population, causing large uprisings, while launching a surprise attack. I estimate they will need a force of at least 20,000 men to occupy large amounts of territory quickly. I suggest we increase our troop count to 7,500, with two separate groups of reinforcements consisting of 8,000–10,000 troops. Ideally, these reinforcements should include veteran units, particularly those experienced in maneuver warfare and siege-craft, to ensure we can stem any initial Persian successes."
Catching his breath, he continued, finding a rhythm in presenting his points. "I also think that Ivan Paskevich should be appointed to a senior command position in the Caucasus and replace General Yermolov."
"Paskevich? I know him. He is a good commander, but why pick him?" Nicholas also thought 'He gained quite the merit in the Napoleonic wars if I remember correctly.'
"In the Napoleonic Wars, he was known for inflicting heavy and decisive defeats and maximizing force effectiveness. He is perfect for this war, where we may be outnumbered. Also, General Yermolov employs harsh tactics to keep the locals in check, including the destruction of local agriculture, cultural institutions, and mass deportations, intensifying local resistance and hatred towards Russia. Which isn't something that we want for long-term rule."
Alexander moved an enemy figurine on the map. "Now, regarding the invasion, I think their probable thrust will be from the Yerevan Khanate into Karabakh, aiming for Yelizavetpol (Ganja) and laying a siege to Shusha. The forces in these areas must be on high alert, with robust reconnaissance providing immediate warning."
He pointed to the Aras River on the map. "The initial Persian thrust might still lead to some temporary territorial losses, such as Yelizavetpol, but we must not panic, as this is an opportunity to let them overextend. That is where Paskevich will come into play. He and his forces can inflict a decisive blow on the enemy, allowing him to execute a rapid counter-offensive and push the Persians back behind the Aras River. Which is why it is important to ensure Paskevich has sufficient forces and ample artillery."
He then pointed to three cities on the map. "Now, with the enemy invasion neutralized, it's time to go on the offensive and quickly capitulate the Persians. The occupation of Tabriz, Urmia, and Ardabil should be prioritized. Tabriz is more than a city; it's the capital of Southern Azerbaijan and, most importantly, the second-largest city in Persia. Capturing it would be a devastating blow to Persia's economic infrastructure and administrative control in the region. Urmia and Ardabil should be prioritized because their capture will inflict significant pressure on the Shah, especially the capture of Ardabil, which holds religious and cultural importance to Persia. With these three cards, Mother Russia will hold a definitive commanding position in the negotiations. This is the fastest, most cost-effective, and most efficient way to end the conflict, allowing us to gain the most benefits with minimal cost."
Nicholas was completely absorbed in his son's speech, which sounded more like the work of a seasoned veteran who had seen countless battles. He forgot that the one who delivered it was a seven-year-old. Of course, it's not surprising as from his knowledge of History he knows that Nicholas was known for his pursuit of efficiency, thus this speech was perfectly designed to convey that point.
"This is more than beyond his years; it is true genius at work," Nicholas thought as he got up and ruffled his son's hair. "Your deduction, analysis, and reasoning are truly excellent. It seems your teachers understated your skills."
Alexander, despite having memories of a man from the 21st century, was still a child. The memories were, after all, not his own. Unused to such praise, he simply responded with his head down. "Thank you, Father."
While that was going on in the military room, there was a different conversation outside it.
***
"Mom, must I attend the lessons?" complained a six-year-old girl who laid her head on her mother's lap as she was being stroked.
"Maria, as I've told you, lessons are mandatory for everyone. Even your younger sisters, Olga and Alexandra, will have to take them," replied the mother, her eyes softly gazing at her daughter.
"Alex also plays with me less than before, constantly in his room, in the library, or talking to Dad. And when he does play with me he is always so... so..." The girl struggled to find the word. So her mother helped her. "Different?"
"Yeah, he seems different than before. Especially after he fainted. Constantly staring at nothing for long periods of time as well. Did something happen to his head or something?"
"Maria, don't be rude to your brother. The court physicians said that he is fine." But as the words left her mouth, a sense of unease settled in her stomach. Recalling the vacant look in his eyes, the way he would suddenly stop eating, lost in thought.
"I'm going to go draw with Olga," said the young girl, getting up and dragging her innocent litle sister who was minding her business along.
As she watched them go, all the mother could do was mutter to herself, "I hope this isn't anything bad."