Li Renshu pondered seriously for a moment and said, "You mean, you can see through the language trap buried in the rules by the designer and then shoot yourself all six times?"
The crowd saw the complete rules, which meant they knew that the live bullet was in the pocket of an innocent person, not in the revolver's cylinder.
The rules stated: "The revolver's cylinder has six chambers, with five empty chambers randomly distributed in it."
This is purely a language trap.
Anyone who knows this point can indeed pass unscathed.
Wang Yongxin immediately objected, "But that's because we have a god's-eye view.
"Assume we wake up knowing nothing and are told this rule under a life-threatening situation; most people can't do the rational thinking you mentioned.
"You believe you can recognize such a trap, but you may be overconfident in your rationality."
Cai Zhiyuan shook his head, "No, I think even if you don't notice this trap, it doesn't prevent you from passing the game.
"Let's go over the probability issue here.
"First, the sum of the distances from the iron mechanism to both sides of the player's head is 6cm, averaging 3cm on each side. Firing at the innocent makes the iron on each side move inward by 1.29cm.
"This means that the first two movements are harmless, and the third movement causes much less damage than the later ones.
"The fourth, fifth, and sixth moves each cause more severe damage to the head, with the risk increasing exponentially, making it almost certain death by the fifth move.
"So when considering the risk of death, you have to think about not only 'getting hit by a bullet' but also 'being crushed to death by the mechanism.'
"Assume the mechanism moving five times leads to death, then we can roughly consider each move as accumulating a 1/5 death progress bar. Of course, the mechanism's mortality rate is not evenly distributed, but increases the further it goes.
"Firing at yourself has a 1/6 chance of killing you, no doubt; shooting the other has a 5/6 chance the gun is empty, but the mechanism moves, contributing another 1/5 death progress bar.
"The actual risk of shooting yourself or the other is about the same.
"Since getting crushed to death possibly takes five shots, you must choose at least two shots to fire at yourself.
"Assuming there really is one live bullet in the gun, each shot has a 1/6 chance of being hit, and which two shots you fire at the other doesn't impact the game's result.
"But psychologically, it's best to choose the first two shots.
"Because in practice, if you miss on the first shot, the probability for the next shots increases, which brings massive psychological pressure.
"For instance, if the first shot unknowingly turns out empty, every subsequent shot changes to a 1/5 chance. If the second shot is empty again, then it becomes 1/4, and so forth.
"Thus, whether you believe all shots have the same probability or not, the first two shots should be fired at yourself.
"With the fourth shot, another hint comes: the fifth shot is blank.
"This hint is incredibly merciful; it's essentially the classic three-door problem, isn't it?
"This means the probability of a live bullet in the fourth shot is still 1/3, whereas in the sixth it's 2/3. If you can decide rationally, the fourth shot should go to you.
"If you understand this, even if the last shot is at the innocent, combined with one shot from the first three hitting them, the iron mechanism moves at most twice.
"From a distance perspective, it won't even cause a scratch.
"Furthermore, from our god's-eye view, we know there isn't a single bullet in the revolver, so getting shot dead by a bullet isn't even possible."
The crowd fell silent for the moment.
Reporter Jiang He frowned and asked, "I understood most of what was said earlier, but I didn't get the last three shots. What's the three-door problem?"
Cai Zhiyuan looked a bit surprised, "Don't you even know this?
"Alright, let me briefly explain; this is actually a classic probability problem.
"It originates from a foreign TV program:
"In front of contestants are three closed doors, with a car behind one; picking it lets you win it, while the other two have nothing behind them.
"A contestant picks one door but doesn't open it immediately.
"Then, the host opens one of the other two doors, which is empty—without a car. Note that the host doesn't open a door randomly, because he knows from the start which door has the car. The door he opens is knowingly empty.
"Then the host asks the contestant: would you like to switch doors?
"If you were the contestant, would you switch?"
Jiang He thought and answered confidently, "No, I'll stick with my first instinct.
"Besides, isn't the probability of a car being behind each door 1/3? What's the difference between switching or not?"
Cai Zhiyuan shook his head, "Then you'd be wrong.
"The original door's probability of having the car doesn't change; it's still 1/3, but the probability for the other door becomes 2/3, so you should switch."
Jiang He was stunned, "Huh? Why?"
Cai Zhiyuan explained, "That's why the three-door problem is a classic probability issue; it's seemingly simple but very counterintuitive.
"Your confusion is normal, as this issue sparked heated debates at the time, with many scientists and scholars opposing it.
"The problem's proof is complex, but I have a more understandable version:
"Suppose we increase the number of doors to 10,000, with one door hiding a car and the other 9,999 hiding nothing.
"You pick one door, the host knows where the car is, then he opens 9,998 other empty doors, leaving one last door.
"Now the host asks, should you switch a door?
"Do you switch this time?"
Jiang He thought a bit, "Switch."
Cai Zhiyuan asked, "And why do you decide to switch this time?"
Jiang He bowed his head in thought, "With ten thousand doors, initially picking the car is nearly impossible, a one in ten thousand chance.
"I'm sure the door I first chose doesn't have the car.
"So the car must be behind the remaining door."
Cai Zhiyuan nodded, "Correct, when the number of doors increases, it's easier to understand this problem.
"No matter how the host opens doors, the originally chosen door remains with an unchanged probability because it was selected from the beginning, but other doors' probabilities increase.
"So back to the original three-door problem: the contestant's chosen door has a 1/3 chance of having a car; the other two doors together have a 2/3 chance.
"After the host eliminates one door, the two-door set's probability becomes equal to the remaining door's probability.
"Thus, that door's probability raises from 1/3 to 2/3."
Fu Chen understood and nodded slightly, appearing contemplative.
"Thus, when the game progresses to the last three shots, and the rules update on the TV, it effectively becomes a 'three-door problem.'
"The upcoming fourth shot is like the originally chosen door; the fifth shot is the host's eliminated door, and the sixth is the remaining door.
"The host asking whether you want to switch doors is akin to players deciding whether to switch the fourth shot with the sixth shot.
"You should choose the lower-probability shot for yourself, the higher one for the innocent."
Cai Zhiyuan commended, "Exactly, you're very clever; that's precisely it."
The group fell into brief silence, digesting Cai Zhiyuan's recent insights.
After Fu Chen pondered carefully, he said, "So, according to this analysis, the 'Wheel of Redemption' is essentially a game testing 'language sensitivity' and 'probability'?
"But can you get an S evaluation just because of this?"
Li Renshu seemed to realize something and glanced at Cao Haichuan:
"Officer Cao, if you were a player in this game, do you think you could survive?"
Cao Haichuan nodded naturally, "Yes."
Li Renshu agreed, "I think so too, and likely not due to any probability issues."
Cao Haichuan seemed to crave a cigarette, instinctively reaching for one but ultimately resisting.
"Yes, I thought about it; there's no special reason I could survive, mainly because I don't understand probability.
"I simply couldn't aim the gun at an innocent person."