Chapter 145: A Strategy to Win Over the Russian Empire
Germany's current diplomatic situation is highly complex. Although it has formed the Triple Alliance with the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Kingdom of Italy to counter the Franco-Russian alliance, in reality, Germany still maintains significant contact with the Russian Empire and is actively trying to pull Russia out of its agreement with France, even attempting to bring it into the alliance.
With Germany's comprehensive rise in industry, economy, and military strength, its diplomatic landscape is undergoing major transformations. Before the unification of Germany, France had long held the dominant position on the European continent. But after the Kingdom of Prussia stepped over France to establish the German Empire, the hegemony in continental Europe, especially Western Europe, shifted to Germany.
Still, one must not forget that although the British Empire did not directly involve itself in continental European disputes and adhered to a policy of isolation, it also supported the relatively weaker contenders in the struggle for European dominance—such as Prussia in the past. Once Germany gained a stronger foothold in Western Europe, particularly with the full development of its army and navy, becoming powerful enough to threaten Britain, the British Empire stopped supporting Germany and even began to compete with it in some areas.
Currently, the major powers on the European continent with significant strength include France—Germany's archenemy and strategic target. The two nations are in an irreconcilable state, with fundamental conflicts that cannot be resolved.
Since the coronation of Edward VII, Britain has gradually shifted away from its isolationist policy, beginning to engage more in European affairs and expanding its influence. However, Britain has yet to firmly side with either of the two major military blocs in Europe, maintaining a neutral stance between them for now. As a result, both alliances are eager to win Britain's favor, and even Wilhelm II has repeatedly attempted to court and ally with Britain.
Beyond Britain and France, the only other powerful nations in Europe aside from Germany are the Russian Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Austria-Hungary, naturally, is part of the Triple Alliance and Germany's only dependable ally for the time being.
The Russian Empire has long been a target of Germany's diplomatic efforts. However, due to the strong relationship and close economic ties between Russia and France, persuading Russia to shift its allegiance toward Germany is extremely difficult, if not impossible. Moreover, just like Germany and France, Austria-Hungary and Russia also have irreconcilable territorial disputes.
Both countries border the Balkans, known as the powder keg of Europe, and each seeks to establish its own sphere of influence in the region. This situation makes a German-Russian alliance virtually impossible, as the territorial disputes are unlikely to be resolved.
Similarly, though Italy is a member of the Triple Alliance, it has territorial conflicts with Austria-Hungary. While Germany has mediated and helped ease tensions between them, leading to the formation of the formal alliance, the resolution of disputes alone is not enough to satisfy Italy. Italy's historical betrayal and switch to the Entente in the past was rooted in these lingering grievances.
Germany has failed to grasp an essential principle in foreign policy: the importance of allying with distant powers and attacking nearby ones. For major powers with ambition and aspiration, geographical proximity often gives rise to numerous territorial disputes. Just like France and Germany, such neighbors inevitably become enemies due to the course of national interests. Even if temporary peace is achieved due to external pressure, the underlying problems remain. Unless both sides agree on a territorial division they can accept, even an alliance may eventually collapse due to conflicting interests.
Unlike Germany and its neighboring allies, the Franco-Russian alliance is separated by the entire territory of Germany, meaning they have no territorial disputes—one of the key reasons why they can work together so closely.
Upon hearing Wilhelm II's question, Foreign Minister Andrew smiled and replied, "Your Majesty, have you ever heard of the strategy 'ally with distant states while attacking nearby ones'?"
"Ally with distant states, attack nearby ones?" Wilhelm II repeated with some interest. "So, how exactly does one apply this strategy?"
"Your Majesty, if we look closely at all of Germany's neighbors, it's hard to find any that don't have historical territorial disputes with the German Empire. Even your current ally Austria-Hungary was once Prussia's greatest enemy in the German region before unification. Austria-Hungary and the Kingdom of Italy also have significant territorial conflicts. While your efforts have brought the three nations together into an alliance, I believe this alliance is fragile and vulnerable to internal collapse," Minister Andrew explained.
"Of your two current allies, only Austria-Hungary can realistically share part of Germany's battlefield pressure. But even Austria-Hungary has major internal issues: its ethnic composition is overly complex, and communication among the different national armies is not easy. Though Emperor Joseph has temporarily unified the country, Austria-Hungary could still collapse in a real war. I believe Germany's current priority should be to court other major powers in Europe, including Britain and the Russian Empire," he added.
Wilhelm II didn't respond but stared intently at Minister Andrew. What Andrew had just proposed was exactly what Germany had been attempting—without success. Despite Germany's efforts to woo Britain and Russia, the former adhered to isolationism and the latter maintained strong political and economic ties with France. As a result, Germany's attempts had all failed. Still, whether the plan worked or not, it was a strategy Germany had already pursued.
If Minister Andrew couldn't provide a compelling explanation, then no matter how much Wilhelm II liked Australia or how close Germany and Australia were, such vague proposals wouldn't be tolerated.
"Your Majesty, the situation today is different from before. Based on an analysis of the current circumstances, His Highness believes that conflict between the island nation and the Russian Empire will intensify and may even erupt into full-scale war within a few years," Andrew said with a smile. "The island nation has imported a large number of army weapons and warships from Britain and Australia and has also signed resource import agreements with us. All signs point to their ambitions no longer being confined to their homeland. They seek hegemony in East Asia."
"On the global stage, the island nation has already secured the support of two great powers—Britain and the United States—and because their base is in East Asia, they face minimal logistical pressure. In contrast, the Russian Empire receives no support from its ally France in East Asia, nor does it have any other major power backing its interests there. With most of its forces concentrated in Eastern Europe, I doubt a small Russian expeditionary force can match the island nation. This poses a serious crisis for Russia."
"But this is also Germany's opportunity. When comparing Britain and Russia, His Highness believes that it is actually the Russian Empire that is more likely to lean toward or even ally with Germany. Britain, like France, is an old colonial power with extensive territories. Germany's ambition to expand overseas colonies is a direct threat to Britain. Moreover, Germany's rapid development, especially in naval strength, has already challenged Britain's dominance at sea. For a country as proud of its navy as Britain, this is unacceptable. Therefore, an alliance between Germany and Britain is unlikely—perhaps even heading toward enmity."
Wilhelm II nodded. In fact, Andrew's explanation aligned with Wilhelm's own view and that of many German officials. Australia's export of weapons and warships to the island nation may appear as support for a potential enemy of Germany, but it is actually creating a diplomatic opportunity for Germany to win over Russia.
If Germany succeeds in drawing Russia to its side, then the island nation's rise in the Far East is of little concern. Even if given decades to develop, it could never catch up to Germany. This was the confidence Wilhelm II and his officials held in the German Empire and its people.
"As for how to win over Russia, His Highness has several proposals. First, weaken the economic ties between France and Russia. France's extensive loans to Russia have deeply entangled their economies, which is a major reason for their alliance. If we can reduce France's economic influence over Russia, we complete the first step in our plan," Andrew explained with a smile.
"Oh? And then?" Wilhelm II asked, now clearly intrigued.
"Germany can help Russia maintain its dominance in East Asia and safeguard its hegemony. Russia's troops in East Asia are poorly equipped and inadequately trained. If war breaks out, they'd be lucky to hold their territory, let alone win. Germany could provide large loans under various pretexts and support Russia's military expansion and modernization in East Asia. As long as Russia retains hegemony there, it will naturally feel goodwill toward the German Empire for coming to its aid during this crisis," Andrew said. "Of course, that's just the surface. Behind the scenes, your country must gain control of some of Russia's media institutions—newspapers and printing presses. While aiding Russia in defending its dominance in East Asia, Germany must launch a propaganda campaign across Russia to strengthen public favor and build civil rapport. This will ultimately influence the thinking of Russia's leadership."
Arthur's proposal to Wilhelm II was simple: help Russia in East Asia and launch a massive propaganda campaign to generate public goodwill. This would, in turn, affect high-level strategic decisions.
Public opinion plays a critical role in any nation, particularly among the general population. If a nation's people are swayed, even its strategic posture can shift. Imagine if the Russian public were overwhelmingly pro-German—even if war broke out due to alliance obligations—how much support would there really be for such a war? Even if soldiers had to follow orders and take up arms, they would not fight ruthlessly because of their attitudes. Such wars often devolve into limited skirmishes with minimal troop deployment.
After all, as the saying goes, "When the general is in the field, even imperial orders may be ignored." Especially on the battlefield, a competent commander must consider the morale and sentiment of his troops. If he ignores them and acts recklessly, he risks mutiny.
"Oh? Manipulate public opinion? That's an excellent idea! Hahaha! Starting from the bottom to influence the top—what a plan!" Wilhelm II said, nodding in great satisfaction.
Though it was still the early 20th century, public sentiment already had a significant influence on national policy. Especially in countries like Britain, France, and Germany, even though domestic capitalists still harshly exploited the people, the masses had begun to acquire significant power—enough to shake a government's foundation.
If a majority of Russians united in support of Germany, even the autocratic Russian government would be forced to take public opinion into account.
"But there's still a problem, Minister Andrew. France won't stand by while we try to win over Russia with loans and weapons. As soon as we provide aid, France might respond with even greater loans—and even gift weapons," Wilhelm II pointed out.
At present, France and Russia remained treaty-bound allies. While France didn't support Russia's Far East ambitions, it certainly wouldn't abandon its ally. On the contrary, France valued Russia highly and would not sit idly by while Germany tried to win them over.
Although Germany was overtaking France in industry and economics, anything Germany could offer to Russia, France could too—and with better relations already in place.
If Germany's approach was too obvious, France would simply counter it, just as it had before.
"Yes, Your Majesty. As fellow European nations and direct neighbors, any move by Germany to woo Russia would certainly be noticed—and blocked—by France," Andrew acknowledged. "Therefore, Germany must not act directly. Instead, this task should be carried out by another country—one capable of supplying arms and equipment, but without any entanglements with France."
(End of Chapter)
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