Chapter 144: Germany's Opportunity
On December 16, 1902, a fleet mysteriously arrived at the port of Hamburg in the German Empire, where it received considerable attention and a grand reception.
The fleet was led by Australia's Foreign Minister Andrew and Defense Minister Kent. After being greeted by a convoy of vehicles in Germany, they quickly arrived at the City Palace in Berlin.
Due to the good relationship between Australia and the German Empire, the two ministers were soon granted an audience with Emperor Wilhelm II.
Of course, the real reason for their special attention was the important message they brought with them, which was why even Emperor Wilhelm II himself was directly informed.
"Your Majesty, on behalf of the Duchy of Australia and Duke Arthur, I send my sincere greetings to you," Minister Andrew said as he and Minister Kent respectfully bowed to Emperor Wilhelm II upon meeting him.
"Gentlemen, I've heard you have an important diplomatic matter regarding the German Empire to discuss with me. What news could be so significant that both of you came all this way?" Emperor Wilhelm II asked, nodding and then inquiring with interest.
"Your Majesty, have you heard of the pact between Australia and Japan from a month ago?" Foreign Minister Andrew asked mysteriously.
"Naturally. The military and economic treaty between you is a mix of advantages and disadvantages, but it has certainly affected the situation in the Far East. But does this relate to a major German diplomatic policy?" Wilhelm II nodded and responded, slightly puzzled.
"Actually, it is related, Your Majesty. This is precisely the opportunity for the German Empire, and perhaps a way to free us from the constraints of the Franco-Russian alliance," Minister Andrew continued, not hiding his excitement.
"Oh? Are you suggesting that the Russian Empire might face defeat in the Far East?" Wilhelm II inquired with mild interest.
The alliance between France and Russia was based not only on the situation but also on their deep-rooted mutual interests. To have Russia abandon the Franco-Russian alliance, or to remain neutral in the conflict between Germany and France, would be difficult unless Germany could somehow rescue Russia from a crisis.
But could a small island nation, supported only by Britain and the United States, really become a hindrance to the Russian Empire in the Far East and even put it in jeopardy? It seemed highly unlikely.
"Although I also don't believe that the powerful Russian Empire would lose in the Far East, the intelligence we have gathered suggests otherwise. Looking at the current situation in the Far East, Japan's overall strength has already surpassed the Russian Empire's, and its navy can rival that of Russia's Far Eastern fleet. This is bad news for the Russian Empire because they face far more severe logistical challenges than Japan. If they can't solve their domestic logistical issues, they will inevitably fall behind in the contest for hegemony in the Far East," Minister Andrew explained, smiling.
"Oh? Could you explain this in more detail?" This question reflected Emperor Wilhelm II's growing curiosity about the opportunity for the German Empire to sway the Russian Empire.
"Your Majesty, as of now, the Russian Empire has fewer than 100,000 troops in the Far East, and their training is questionable, with outdated weapons and equipment. These soldiers might hold their ground in peacetime, but in wartime against another powerful nation, they would be severely disadvantaged," Minister Andrew continued, laughing.
"Meanwhile, Japan's army has grown to several hundred thousand. Given their population size and after extensive conscription, their total force could even reach up to 3 million soldiers. While the Russian Empire could match that number, or even exceed it, their logistics can't support the rapid movement of that many troops to the Far East. The maximum number of Russian soldiers they can deploy to the region is about 200,000. The difference between 200,000 and 3 million is enough to decide everything."
"More importantly, Japan's army has incorporated aspects of the German army's training methods. While they may not yet reach the excellence of the German army, their training and weaponry will certainly outperform the Russian Empire's Far Eastern troops. With a huge advantage in numbers and equipment, Your Majesty, who do you think will have the upper hand in the Far East?" Minister Andrew asked, smiling.
"But the Russian Empire has a navy in the Far East, right? A fleet of that size should be able to withstand Japan's navy! As long as Japan's navy can't gain an advantage, even if Japan's army has the upper hand, can't the Russian navy bombard Japan's coast?" Wilhelm II asked, still a bit confused.
In fact, it wasn't just Wilhelm II. Even during the Russo-Japanese War, most countries believed that the Russian fleet would be enough to resist Japan's navy. Even if they didn't win, they could maintain a blockade and cut off Japan's maritime trade routes.
In such a case, the war in the Far East would turn into a protracted battle, and the Russian Empire, with its vast territory and rich mineral resources, would undoubtedly have the upper hand.
But who would have expected that Japan's seemingly weak fleet would decisively defeat the Russian fleet with minimal losses, completely changing the course of the war?
But that naval battle hadn't yet occurred, and people hadn't yet witnessed this surprising outcome.
"Your Majesty, after Japan has acquired several warships from Australia, their navy is now on par with the Russian Far Eastern fleet. Moreover, most of Japan's battleships and new warships were built within the last decade, while the Russian fleet has many ships that are over ten years old, with few newer ships. Along with the logistics problems that have already been exposed, Japan's home base in the Far East ensures its logistical support, whereas Russia's Trans-Siberian Railway is still not fully completed, and their transportation of supplies is a huge issue. Moreover, the Russian Empire's economy heavily relies on loans from France, and since France does not support Russia's policies in the Far East, Russia's finances are in poor shape. Given all these factors, why should we not believe that this newly rising nation, Japan, will succeed in competing with the Russian Empire for regional hegemony in the Far East?" Minister Andrew explained.
"Of course, if the Russian Empire loses its Far Eastern hegemony, that's not good for the German Empire either. A Russian Empire with Far Eastern dominance can focus part of its energy on the region, which will relieve some of the pressure on Germany from the Franco-Russian alliance. But if Russia loses its dominance in the Far East, and their influence in the region diminishes, they will likely shift their focus back to Europe. A Russian Empire that focuses entirely on Europe would not be good for Germany, since in Europe, Russia would prefer to ally with France rather than Germany," Minister Andrew continued.
The question then became, would the German Empire abandon its opposition to France?
The reason for the long-standing conflict between Germany and France, besides their rivalry, was the clash between the old colonial powers and the emerging industrial powers.
Emerging industrial powers like the German Empire needed markets to sell their industrial products and secure profits, but the old colonial powers had always treated their colonies as their own private territories. Industrial products from other countries either faced high tariffs or couldn't enter at all.
Moreover, as industrial and technological importance increased, the new industrial powers began to surpass the old colonial powers in terms of overall strength, such as the rise of Germany over France and the United States.
In this situation, Germany grew increasingly dissatisfied with the old colonial powers, particularly Britain and France, as they controlled most of the world's colonies. Although Germany didn't openly say so, Britain still had the largest empire in the world.
"Since you've come all the way from Australia, I assume you have some plans and proposals in mind. So, what does Arthur suggest for the current situation in Germany?" Wilhelm II asked with a smile.
Given that Australia had sent two ministers on such a long journey, their purpose was clearly more than just delivering a message to Wilhelm II.
Arthur's royal affairs manager could have simply relayed the message, but instead, Australia had sent high-level ministers, indicating something much larger was at play.
(End of Chapter)
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