In the sixth month of the second year of Jian'an, disaster swept across the land.
A massive locust plague devoured the crops, leaving famine in its wake—so severe that people were driven to cannibalism.
Before Yuan Xi lay a table covered in bamboo slips. Each carried reports from different regions, each containing only a few grim words—but together, they painted a horrifying picture of the empire's collapse.
As expected, the struggle for Xuzhou had intensified.
Both Yuan Shu and Cao Cao understood one thing clearly: with the locust plague, neither side had a way out.
For Yuan Shu's army, the situation was especially dire. Their rear supplies were nearly exhausted. If they retreated, their soldiers would starve and chaos would erupt. So instead of withdrawing, they chose desperation—
Fight to the death.
Win, and seize Xuzhou to open a path north.
Lose, and at least reduce the number of mouths to feed.
Yuan Xi and his advisors had long foreseen this—but their calculations were limited to Xuzhou itself. What concerned him now was something larger: when and how to enter the battlefield at Xiapi and Tancheng.
But first, he needed to see how Cao Cao would respond.
Several days later, news arrived:
Tancheng had fallen.
Yuan Xi immediately asked Lu Xun, "Do you think Cao Cao was defeated… or did he withdraw on purpose?"
Lu Xun didn't hesitate.
"He withdrew deliberately."
"The scouts report that his army did not collapse. Instead, they moved faster—and headed west."
"West?" Yuan Xi's expression changed sharply. "Not north?"
"Not north," Lu Xun confirmed. "They entered Pei State."
At that moment, everything clicked.
Yuan Xi's face darkened. "Cao Cao… is truly formidable."
Lu Xun gave a bitter smile. "Our worst fear has come true."
He continued, "His real objective was never to march south from Xiapi. It was to return to Yanzhou—and strike into Yuzhou from there."
The two spread out a map.
Yuan Xi pointed between Yanzhou and Yuzhou. "Where do you think they'll clash?"
Lu Xun pointed decisively. "Between Chen and Liang."
Yuan Xi nodded slowly. "Most likely Chen."
He recalled the mysterious death of Liu Chong, King of Chen, and the unclear division of forces afterward.
"Perhaps Yuan Shu already took action there… and the two sides divided the spoils."
Lu Xun agreed.
"The location of Chen is critical. From there, one can strike Yingchuan to the west, or threaten Chenliu and Yanzhou to the north."
"And if Chenliu falls…" he added quietly, "Cao Cao's base in Juancheng is exposed."
Everything began to fall into place.
Yuan Shu's attack on Xiapi had never been the real objective.
It was bait.
A feint to lure Cao Cao south and weaken Yanzhou's defenses—while Yuan Shu's true main force struck north into Chen and Liang.
Yuan Xi had deduced this earlier based on future historical patterns: Yuan Shu feared Cao Cao deeply and would never willingly face him head-on.
So instead, he used deception.
And yet—
What if Cao Cao had seen through it all?
That possibility now became reality.
Cao Cao's withdrawal from Xiapi confirmed everything.
He had anticipated Yuan Shu's plan—and countered it perfectly.
While Yuan Shu advanced north, Cao Cao moved west from Pei into Liang, aiming to strike Yuan Shu's army from the flank.
The hunter had become the hunted.
Yuan Shu's northern force was now in grave danger.
As the two analyzed the map, understanding dawned piece by piece.
Beside them, Lü Lingqi finally sighed, rubbing her temples.
"Just listening to this makes my head spin… warfare like this is exhausting."
She paused, then added worriedly, "If my father were in Yuan Shu's position… he wouldn't stand a chance against someone like Cao Cao."
Lu Xun reassured her, "There is no need to worry. Marquis Wen is not the focus of this conflict."
Relief came—followed quickly by discomfort.
Not the focus… meant irrelevant.
Yuan Xi noticed her expression and smiled faintly.
"In times like this, it's better not to be involved."
"This storm will swallow everyone eventually—but no one can say who will survive."
He turned back to the map, his tone growing serious.
"The real problem now is Xiapi."
"If we attack Yuan Shu's remaining army, we'll only be helping Cao Cao—tying down Yuan Shu's forces for him."
Lu Xun nodded.
"The ideal scenario is to drive them out—preferably westward, so they can threaten Cao Cao's rear."
"But…" he shook his head, "that's wishful thinking."
"They have forty to fifty thousand troops. We barely have ten thousand. Why would they abandon a fortified city?"
"And if they retreat, they'll go south to Shouchun—not west."
Yuan Xi sighed.
"And as long as they hold Xiapi, we can't move south either."
"If Cao Cao defeats Yuan Shu and takes Yuzhou, we won't be able to catch up."
For a moment, both men fell silent.
Then, two days later—
New intelligence arrived.
Yuan Shu's army had clashed with Cao Cao in Chen. Nearly all of Yuan Shu's key generals had been committed: Zhang Xun, Qiao Rui, even former bandit leaders like Yang Feng and Han Xian.
The decisive battle had begun.
Yuan Xi felt the pressure mounting.
He had few moves left.
But just as the situation seemed to close in—
An unexpected opportunity appeared.
Holding a secret letter from Ling County, Yuan Xi's expression shifted.
A smile slowly spread across his face.
He looked at Lu Xun.
"Now… we might have a chance."