On Luck
by Hikigaya Hachiman
Luck.
People like to say luck is impartial, that it has no favorites, that it will be on your side times, and the rest would be on a different side.
Well, they're wrong, they all know that luck has always been biased. And it is, as if the universe will just hand out second chances to anyone without the right hairstyle, hat, and main character energy.
You know the type—people with glittering eyes, reckless optimism, and the convenient habit of stumbling into the right place at the right time, the type you see often in Manga.
For these people, a miracle is never out of reach. For them, luck exists to reward protagonists who dream big, who run with reckless abandon toward goals they have no business reaching.
And maybe it does.
Maybe in a world that is built on stories, the world needs heroes, and heroes need luck. Without it, their dreams would just be the delusions of ordinary people who wake up late and still trip on the way to school.
But I've never trusted luck.
It's fickle, unreliable, like something that only shows up when you don't need it, and disappears when you do.
Just depending on luck feels like sitting in a sinking boat and praying the tide will carry you to shore.
I don't pray. I paddle, even if my arms give out halfway. Even if the boat is just a rotten plank.
Yes, life is larger than me. I know that. Some people get swept up in its currents and somehow ride the waves to glory.
They smile, call it destiny, and everyone claps. But luck doesn't care about me, and I refuse to care about it.
If by some cruel joke I ever had a protagonist in my hand—someone who naturally bends probability, who sways fortune just by existing—I wouldn't rely on them. I'd use them.
Not out of malice, but because that's what luck is good for: a resource to be accounted for, factored into a plan, exploited in a plot.
Impossible dreams, after all, need luck to survive. But I don't chase dreams. I dissect them, corner them, strip them down until all that's left is something manageable, something tangible.
If I succeed, it's not because I was lucky. It's because I calculated around the uncertainty of luck. And if I fail… well, at least I won't be surprised.
Heroes can have their miracles.
I'll settle for plans, even broken ones.
At least those belong to me.
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I walked into the gun deck room of the Going Merry, my boots echoing against the wooden planks with each deliberate step.
The space reeked of gunpowder and salt, a combination that would normally make anyone queasy, but after two years sailing these accursed waters, I'd grown accustomed to far worse stenches.
'At least it's not the smell of rotting fish guts and blood this time.'
The arms storage was exactly what I'd expected from this ragtag bunch—a complete disaster.
Three rusty cutlasses hung haphazardly from pegs, their edges duller than Luffy's understanding of basic economics. A handful of flintlock pistols lay scattered in a crate, most missing crucial components like, oh, I don't know, firing mechanisms. The ammunition supply consisted of less than a dozen cannonballs and enough gunpowder to last through one serious naval engagement.
'Wonderful. We're heading to the Grand Line with the military equivalent of kitchen utensils and party favors.'
I picked up one of the pistols, examining its corroded barrel with the practiced eye of someone who'd learned the hard way that shoddy equipment meant a swift death in this world. The metal was pitted with rust, and the trigger mechanism seized from lack of maintenance.
'This thing would be more dangerous to the person firing it than any enemy.'
This was my second day aboard the Going Merry, and already I was questioning every life choice that had led me to this moment.
Yesterday had been a blur of sorting through the generous provisions the villagers of Cocoyasi had provided—enough food to feed a small army, which coincidentally was exactly what Luffy's appetite required.
We'd celebrated our departure with another feast, because apparently three days of non-stop partying in the village hadn't been quite enough debauchery for this crew.
'And now here I am, conducting a ship assessment like some sort of maritime inspector.'
I'd made it my mission this morning to survey every inch of this vessel, mentally cataloging our supplies—because why waste paper when what you are going to write is just a few lines, assessing our capabilities—or the lack of it, and trying to get a realistic picture of what I'd gotten myself into.
The results so far had been... illuminating. And by illuminating, I meant utterly depressing.
The kitchen was well-stocked thanks to Sanji's foresight, though with Luffy's bottomless stomach, those supplies would last maybe a week if we were lucky.
The sleeping quarters were not spacious but functional. The navigation equipment was actually impressive—Nami clearly knew her trade.
But everything else?
'Everything else is held together by hopes, dreams, and what I can only assume is some sort of maritime prayer.'
And now here I was, taking inventory of our pathetic armory while trying to ignore the distinctly uncomfortable sensation of being watched.
I glanced up at the ceiling, addressing the empty air. "I know I'm aboard your deck and all, but could you please lessen your 'gaze' a bit? It's really distracting."
A child's giggling echoed through the wooden beams, and immediately the oppressive feeling of observation faded to almost nothing.
'Of course it was doing it on purpose.' I sighed, shaking my head. 'Even the ship has a sense of humor. Perfect. Add "entertainment for a ghostly ship" to my growing list of responsibilities.'
I was just contemplating whether our ammunition would last through a single real battle when a thunderous roar of cheering and laughter erupted from the stern deck.
'And there goes any chance of completing this inspection in peace. Not like there is much to look through anyway.'
The celebratory noise was distinctly Luffy-shaped—that particular brand of infectious enthusiasm that could make grown men forget their troubles and join in whatever ridiculous activity had captured his attention.
I secured the ammunition crate and made my way to the main deck, already dreading whatever chaos I was about to encounter.
The sight that greeted me was exactly what I'd expected: Luffy, Usopp, and Sanji engaged in what could generously be called dancing.
"What's all the commotion about?" I called out.
Roronoa stood on the bow deck above me, arms crossed, watching the spectacle with the resigned expression of someone who'd long since given up trying to understand his captain's behavior.
"Looks like Luffy got a bounty."
'Ah, there it is.'
The first bounty—a milestone that marked the transition from small-time troublemaker to legitimate threat in the eyes of the World Government.
In the manga, this had been a moment of celebration and trepidation, the crew's first real taste of what it meant to be wanted criminals.
'And judging by the dancing, they're focusing on the celebration part.'
I climbed the stairs to the stern deck, Roronoa falling into step behind me with the lazy confidence of someone who expected trouble but wasn't particularly concerned about it.
"Hachiman! Zoro! Look! Look!" Luffy bounded toward us with the hyperactive energy of a caffeinated squirrel, waving a piece of paper like it was made of pure gold.
"Look at my bounty!"
The wanted poster he thrust in our faces was exactly what I'd expected: Luffy's idiotic grin plastered with the word "WANTED" above it in bold letters, "DEAD OR ALIVE" beneath his picture, and "30,000,000 Berri" at the bottom in numbers large enough to give any sane person nightmares.
'Thirty million for a rookie.' I studied the poster with what I hoped looked like casual interest. 'That's not just high by the East Blue standards—it's astronomical. Someone wanted to make sure this boy gets attention.'
"I wonder who could have reported it," I said aloud, letting genuine curiosity color my voice. "The timing's pretty close to us defeating Arlong. According to our agreement, Commodore Pudding should have taken credit for that."
'Though knowing the Marines' bureaucracy, they probably filed seventeen different reports and credited everyone from the janitor of the base to Commodore Pudding's pet goldfish.'
"That's a pretty high number too," Roronoa observed, his hand instinctively moving toward his sword hilts. "We've probably got the attention of Marine Headquarters now. And every bounty hunter in East Blue."
'Leave it to Roronoa to cut straight to the heart of the matter.' I watched as his words sank in, and the celebratory mood shifted dramatically.
Usopp gulped audibly, his face paling. "This-this-this is bad."
"We should head to the Grand Line as fast as possible. We can't afford to just loiter around in East Blue any longer." Nami said, her navigator's instincts kicking in. The worry lines around her eyes told me she was already calculating distances and dangers.
'However, going to the Grand Line is like going into the dragon lair directly, not running away from it. But looks like she wouldn't appreciate this information.'
"Alright!" Luffy's enthusiasm returned instantly, apparently immune to concepts like 'mortal danger' and 'common sense'.
"Men! Let's Head Straight For Grand Line!!" He spun toward Nami with the expectant look of a child asking for candy.
"Nami! Which way do we go?"
Nami sighed—a sound I was beginning to recognize as the universal expression of 'why do I surround myself with idiots?'—and spread a sea chart across the deck.
"We're pretty close to the Grand Line," she said, pointing to our approximate position.
"But if we want to enter the Grand Line, there's only one way for ships to do it safely—through Reverse Mountain." Her finger traced across the map to a mountain-like shape with a blue X mark atop it.
"That's a pain. Can't we just sail straight to it?" Roronoa settled against the railing with practiced ease, his swords clattering softly.
'Ah, yes, the swordsman's approach to navigation: point sword at destination, sail forward until something stops you.'
"That's impossible," Sanji interjected, lighting a cigarette with the casual motion of someone who'd clearly had this conversation before.
"The old geezer told me the only way to enter the Grand Line with boats is through Reverse Mountain."
"Why?" Usopp's voice cracked slightly on the word.
"Because it's dangerous." Sanji took a long drag, exhaling smoke into the ocean breeze.
"YEAH, WHY?" Usopp's voice climbed another octave.
"That's all I know." Sanji shrugged with indifference.
'The blind leading the blind, with a healthy dose of secondhand information and wishful thinking.' I found myself almost admiring their collective ignorance. It took real skill to be this unprepared for anything.
Nami opened her mouth to explain, but Luffy's eyes lit up with the dangerous gleam I was learning to associate with impending disasters.
"Let's sail straight to it!" he declared with the confidence of someone who'd never met a bad idea he didn't immediately want to marry.
"Hey, Were You Listening?!" Nami screamed at him, trying to get some sense into his head.
"Yeah, it looks like it would be interesting!" But it was all for naught, as he was totally abroad the idea.
I watched Nami's eye twitch—a small, barely perceptible movement that spoke volumes about her mental state.
"Well," I interjected before Nami could have an aneurysm, "that's actually possible. We'd just need to contact a smuggler."
The entire crew turned to look at me with expressions ranging from curiosity to horror. Luffy, naturally, was in the curiosity camp.
"Why would we need a smuggler?" he asked, tilting his head like a confused puppy.
'Time for another teaching moment.' I'd learned that with this crew, information had to be dispensed carefully—too much at once and they'd tune out, too little and they'd become disinterested, making catastrophically stupid decisions.
"Remember when I told you about smugglers, the ones who use tamed sea monsters as draft animals to navigate dangerous waters?" I asked, waiting for his nod of recognition.
"We'd need their services to cross the Calm Belt."
The words "Calm Belt" hit the group like a physical blow. Four voices spoke in perfect unison: "What's the Calm Belt?"
'Of course, they don't know. Why would they know basic geography of the world they're planning to sail?'
Nami seized the opportunity to demonstrate her expertise, and I had to admit, her explanation was both accurate and appropriately terrifying.
"The Calm Belt refers to the two strips of ocean that run along the north and south borders of the Grand Line. They're called 'calm' because there's no wind and no ocean currents—which means sailing ships are completely dead in the water."
She paused for effect, and I could see the implications starting to dawn on their faces.
"But that's not the worst part," she continued. "The Calm Belt is infested with Sea Kings—the most massive ones too, the size that can destroy entire fleets. It's considered impossible to cross by conventional means."
The silence that followed was deafening. Even Luffy's perpetual grin had faded as he processed this information.
'Finally, something that's managed to dampen his enthusiasm. I didn't think that was possible.'
All eyes turned back to me, and I could practically hear the gears turning in their heads.
'Time to complete the picture.'
"The only way to cross the Calm Belt is with the help of specialized smuggling operations," I explained, settling into my role as the voice of grim practicality.
"They know secret routes and maintain contracts with tamers who've managed to tame specific sea creatures. These monsters can tow ships through the windless zones."
The crew stared at me in stunned silence for several long moments. Nami was the first to speak, her voice filled with disbelief.
"Such methods actually exist?"
Sanji nodded slowly, his cigarette forgotten between his fingers. "It sounds insane enough to be true."
Luffy, meanwhile, had progressed from shock to amazement.
"That's amazing!" Luffy's resilience was truly remarkable—it took him less than thirty seconds to bounce back from 'certain death' to 'new adventure.'
"Oi! Oi! That sounds incredibly dangerous!" Usopp wailed. "Luffy, please don't make us take that route!"
'At least one person on this ship has a functioning sense of self-preservation.'
"And so, how do we get in touch with these smugglers?" Roronoa's question cut through the various reactions with typical directness.
'And there's the literally million Berri question.' I let a small smile play across my lips—the kind that suggested I knew exactly how complicated things were about to become.
"It could take weeks to establish contact," I admitted. "These operations don't exactly advertise their services. They work through closed networks, and outsiders aren't generally trusted. Even if we managed to reach them, there's no guarantee they'd work with us."
Not to mention the fact that most smugglers are paranoid criminals who shoot first and ask questions later. Especially not with a crew that includes a thirty-million-Berri rookie pirate and enough collective naivety to power a small city. But I'll keep that cheerful detail to myself for now.
Luffy's face fell like a deflated balloon. "Weeks? But that'll take forever!"
'Forever. Right. Because waiting a few weeks is definitely the biggest obstacle between us and the Grand Line.' Sometimes his impatience was almost endearing. Almost.
"What about the Reverse Mountain route?" he asked, turning back to Nami.
"About two days if the weather holds," she replied, already rolling up the chart.
"Then it's decided! We're going through Reverse Mountain!" The transformation was instantaneous. Luffy's grin returned full force, and he pumped his fist in the air.
Everyone nodded in agreement—a rare moment of unanimous decision-making that I briefly considered documenting for posterity.
"If we're going to Reverse Mountain," Nami continued, consulting her charts again, "we'll have to stop at Loguetown first." Her finger tapped a substantial port town marked prominently on the map.
"I've heard of that place," Roronoa said, his voice taking on an unusually thoughtful tone. "They call it the town of the beginning and the end."
'Time for a history lesson,' I thought, recognizing my cue. "It's the place where the Pirate King was born, the place where he was executed, and the place where the Great Pirate Era started."
The effect was immediate and profound. The entire crew fell silent, and I could see them processing the weight of what I'd just said.
Luffy's expression grew solemn, a rare moment of genuine gravity crossing his features. "The place where... the Pirate King..." He repeated my words slowly, as if tasting their significance.
"I want to go there," he said quietly.
Of course you do. There was something almost inevitable about Luffy's desire to visit Roger's hometown. Like gravity, or stupidity, or the way bad decisions seemed to cluster around this crew.
But despite my cynicism, I had to admit it made sense. "It's actually a good opportunity," I said aloud.
"Loguetown is a major trading hub with excellent ship maintenance facilities. Since it's so close to the Grand Line, we'll be able to find specialized supplies and equipment."
I looked around at their expectant faces and asked. "Have you made a supplies list for the Grand Line?"
The blank stares I received in response were exactly what I'd expected.
A supplies list. The most basic element of voyage preparation, and they're staring at me like I just asked them to calculate the orbital mechanics of the moon.
'Of course they haven't. Why would they think ahead when they could just wing it and hope for the best?'
Sanji was the first to break the awkward silence. "Well, we burned through a lot of our food supplies during yesterday's celebration. Mostly thanks to Luffy eating enough for five normal people." He shot an accusatory look at their captain, who had the grace to look sheepish.
"I was planning on getting a few things for my Grand Line adventure," Usopp added with transparent bravado. "As the future great warrior of the sea, I should be properly equipped."
Right. Because nothing says 'great warrior' like shopping for supplies with your allowance money.
"I could use some new clothes," Nami said practically.
Luffy and Roronoa, meanwhile, seemed content to let the others handle the 'logistics'. "I don't need anything special," Luffy said with a shrug. "Though I wouldn't say no to trying some new kinds of meat."
"Same here," Roronoa agreed. "Maybe sample the local sake selection."
I looked at this collection of individuals—and I use the term loosely—with the kind of horrified fascination usually reserved for natural disasters or particularly creative traffic accidents.
"Are you guys serious?" I asked slowly.
'Please tell me this is some kind of elaborate joke. Please tell me that these people, who are planning to sail one of the most dangerous seas in the world, have given more thought to their provisions than 'meat' and 'wine.''
Luffy blinked at me with genuine confusion. "What's wrong, Hachiman? Do you want to pick something up too?"
'What's wrong? WHAT'S WRONG, HE SAYS?!' I pressed my palm against my temple and took a deep breath, fighting the urge to grab them all by the shoulders and shake some sense into them.
'Remember, Hachiman. You chose to join this crew. This is your fault for expecting competence from people who think 'meat and wine' constitutes voyage planning.'
"This is exactly why..." I muttered under my breath, then caught myself.
'No, getting frustrated won't help. I need to approach this like I would any other problem—methodically and with realistic expectations.'
'I need to be direct without sounding too patronizing—though at this point, I'm not sure that's possible.'
I sat down heavily and pointed at the Grand Line on Nami's chart. "We are about to enter the Grand Line," I said carefully, "a sea infamous for its cruelty. If we're planning to sail it from start to finish, we're talking about a grand voyage that will take years. At minimum."
The casual chatter died instantly as my words sank in. Even Luffy looked serious, which was roughly equivalent to a solar eclipse in terms of rarity.
'There. That got their attention.'
"Now," I continued, gesturing at the group, "While we have the best crew in East Blue right here—"
The effect was immediate—smiles all around, chests puffing out with pride.
'A little flattery never hurts, and it's not entirely untrue. They are skilled, just catastrophically unprepared.'
"—But aside from the crew," I said, letting my voice drop to a more serious tone, "we have nothing else working for us."
"What do you mean by that?" Sanji asked, his expression shifting from pleased to concerned.
"First off," I rapped my knuckles against the deck beneath us. "This ship is going to have a very hard time with us in the Grand Line."
And the 'gaze' returned the moment I mentioned the ship. But it is okay, as this concerns her too.
"Are you saying the Going Merry isn't fit for the Grand Line?" Usopp immediately went on the defensive, his voice rising with indignation.
'Bingo. Right to the emotional core of the issue.'
"I wouldn't say unfit," I replied carefully, choosing my words to minimize the blow to his pride while maximizing the educational impact.
"But let's be realistic about what we're working with. The Going Merry is a small caravel designed for private cruising and civilian purposes. She's a beautiful ship, but she wasn't built to withstand the harsh and unpredictable conditions of the Grand Line."
I could see Usopp wrestling with the conflict between his emotional attachment to the ship and the logical truth of what I was saying.
"The best we can do is regular maintenance," I continued. "Since we don't have a dedicated shipwright, we'll need to take advantage of every opportunity to service and repair the ship. That port at Loguetown would be perfect for a thorough inspection."
They were all nodding slowly now, the reality of their situation beginning to sink in.
'Progress. Actual progress.'
"We'll also need to upgrade her combat capabilities—more cannons, armor on the hull, reinforced rigging. Anything we can do to give her a fighting chance."
"Is that really necessary?" Roronoa asked, raising an eyebrow.
'Is that really—? Does he think we're going to sail through Paradise playing games and having tea parties?'
"It is," I replied firmly. "We're pirates. The most expected thing for us at sea is combat. With the powerful cannons the Marines have, this ship would only take three hits from one cannon before she is scrap wood, and the most frustrating thing is that she would have no capability of fighting back."
I gestured around us. "Heading to the Grand Line without upgrading our ship…is just unfair to the Going Merry."
'And to us, but let's focus on what they can emotionally connect with.'
Everyone smiled at that, and Luffy's grin was positively radiant.
"Yosh! It is decided then, we'll give Merry a proper upgrade at Loguetown!" he declared with the enthusiasm of someone who'd just discovered a new flavor of ice cream.
'At least he's taking this seriously.' I pressed my advantage.
"We'll also need new navigational equipment," I said, turning to Nami. "Grand Line specific instruments."
Her eyebrows shot up in surprise. "Huh? Why? My equipment is all high-quality custom work. I maintain it meticulously."
I'm sure you do. But you have no idea what you're heading into.
"I'm sure it's excellent for East Blue navigation," I replied diplomatically. "But the Grand Line operates under completely different rules."
I took out my 'faulty' Compass and opened its lid, and let them see its endlessly spinning disk as a demonstration.
"Magnetic fields are chaotic there, so compasses don't work. That's why they use something else called Log Poses and Eternal Poses. The sky is mostly cloudy, so we can't see the stars most of the time, so we will need something called Harald Astrolabe that can give us the location of the stars even through the clouds."
"Not only that, weather patterns, ocean currents—everything you know about navigation gets turned upside down in the Grand Line. You'll need specialized instruments designed specifically for those conditions."
I could see her professional pride warring with her practical nature. Fortunately, practicality won out.
"What else?" she asked, pulling out a piece of paper to take notes.
'Finally, someone who understands the value of proper planning.'
"There is also something that is called Arno-meter, but that is the extent of my unprofessional knowledge. You will have to get an extended talk with whom you will get these items from."
Nami nodded silently at that, as she took notes with her mind, thinking.
"There are also weapons and ammunition. We'll need a full arsenal of firearms and bladed weapons. And not just the conventional one but also the unconventional, like net launchers, harpoon guns, hooks, axes, and the normal repair materials like wood and iron plates."
"As pirates, we'll be expected to fight, and running out of equipment in the middle of a battle is a quick way to end up dead."
Usopp and Roronoa perked at that, nodding understandingly.
"More food, too," I added, shooting a meaningful look at Luffy. "Given our captain's... enthusiastic appetite, we'll need to stock enough provisions for an army."
Luffy had the grace to look embarrassed, though his sheepish grin suggested he wasn't particularly sorry about his eating habits.
'Now for the moment of truth.'
"But before we make any of these plans," I said, adopting the tone of someone about to deliver bad news, "I have a very important question."
Five pairs of eyes focused on me with varying degrees of apprehension.
"Do we have enough money to pay for all of this?"
'And there it is. The question that will expose just how thoroughly unprepared they really are.'
The crew exchanged glances with the kind of awkwardness usually reserved for admitting to major financial fraud.
The silence was deafening. They looked at each other with the growing realization that they had, perhaps, overlooked a crucial element of their grand adventure.
Sanji was the first to speak.
"I've got some savings from my time at the Baratie. Not a fortune, but it should help."
Usopp nodded enthusiastically. "Same here! I've been saving up for my adventure for years!"
'Two down, three to go. And I already know what the others are going to say.'
Nami sighed deeply. "I left all my money with the village. I was planning on taking pocket money before I leave, but that plan failed."
''''You mean that last heist fiasco?''''
We all looked at her with an expression of not knowing what to make of this woman. Well, all of us expect Sanji, who had his usual lovestruck expression.
Luffy and Roronoa looked at each other and shrugged with the casual indifference of people who had never worried about money in their lives.
"I don't have any money on me!" Luffy announced cheerfully with a wide grin and buffed chest.
"Same," Roronoa added with the same amount of pride.
"…Yeah, but it is not something to be happy about though…"
The silence that followed was thick with the weight of dawning realization.
Usopp and Sanji's savings would cover basic supplies at best, certainly not the comprehensive upgrades and equipment we'd need for a successful Grand Line campaign.
'So in the end, we are just a broke bunch of suckers.'
I sighed and stood up. "Then there's really only one option."
'Time to embrace the pirate lifestyle, whether I like it or not.'
"We'll have to go treasure hunting."
…
A/N: I originally wanted to include the treasure hunting tangent in this Chapter, but it will
A/N: I originally wanted to include the treasure hunting tangent in this Chapter, but it will get too big for one Chapter.
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