Chapter 3: An Unexpected Adjustment
"Please, sit. My armored hero—General Guderian, and my Chief of General Staff—General Zeitzler, I am very pleased to have dinner with you both." Hoffman struggled to adapt to the Führer's style of speaking.
"Chief of General Staff?" Guderian looked completely astonished, turning to ask Zeitzler, "Are you replacing Halder?"
Zeitzler looked apologetic: "To tell you the truth, I only just received verbal notification from General Schmundt. I don't know any of the specifics."
Guderian was very puzzled. From the Führer's words just now, he was certain he would be reinstated, which gave him high expectations. Although he didn't dare to hope for the position of Chief of General Staff, a command of an army should at least be guaranteed. Now, it seemed the situation was far more complex than he had imagined. If a junior like Zeitzler could be Chief of General Staff, why couldn't he, Guderian? He looked at Zeitzler with a complex expression, his mind shifting between hope and anxiety.
Zeitzler's confusion was no less than Guderian's. Had it not been for the clear directive telegram from the Stavka, he would never have flown from France to have dinner with the Führer. It was well known that the Führer lived an austere life, with simple dietary habits that senior officers accustomed to luxury found difficult to adapt to. Even worse, the Führer often delivered long-winded speeches during meals, endlessly peddling the same old clichés, which made listeners' ears ache, yet they still had to pretend to listen attentively. Hearing that the Führer had summoned him and that he would have to dine with him made Zeitzler's head ache, but he had no choice but to come. He had originally thought the Führer just wanted to understand the specific situation of the Dieppe Raid, for which he had prepared thoroughly. He hadn't expected that after getting off the plane, Schmundt would subtly inform him that he was about to take over as Chief of General Staff. Although he didn't know how his close friend had recommended him to the higher-ups, such shocking news still left him feeling somewhat fearful and anxious.
"General Zeitzler, the Dieppe Raid was conducted well, but..." Hoffman paused, "I would like to hear your thoughts on the current situation on the Eastern Front."
Zeitzler was stunned for a moment. Is the Führer prepared to listen to my thoughts? But I haven't prepared anything at all!
He thought for a moment, weighing his words, and said slowly: "Führer, as you know, I only received the telegram and rushed here this afternoon. In fact, until yesterday, I was still serving as the Chief of Staff for Army Group D in the West, busy handling the aftermath of the Dieppe Raid. My understanding of the Eastern Front is limited entirely to the combat reports sent by the Stavka, so my insights are quite superficial..." Zeitzler still couldn't figure out Hoffman's hand, so he didn't dare to speak casually, fearing he might anger the Führer, who was said to have become somewhat neurotic recently. But he couldn't just throw up his hands and say he didn't know—that would only further provoke the Führer's resentment and might even implicate Schmundt.
Hoffman interrupted him mercilessly: "Don't be modest, get to the point!"
Zeitzler's expression was a bit awkward, but he was a man of the world and quickly adjusted his mindset.
"The situation on the Eastern Front is generally quite..." Zeitzler thought for a long time, finally squeezing out a word, "Positive! In the northern sector of the front, facing Army Group North, we have besieged Leningrad and repelled the Red Army's offensive at Demyansk; in the Rzhev salient in the central sector, under the leadership of General Model, we are firmly holding our defensive positions and have inflicted heavy casualties on the enemy; in the southern sector, our army has cleared the remaining enemies on the Crimean Peninsula, firmly controlling Sevastopol and the Kerch Peninsula. After thwarting Timoshenko's offensive attempt, we achieved victory at Kharkov, and the Sixth Army is now at the gates, forming a powerful deterrent against Stalingrad... Of course, there are also many problems. First, there is a serious shortage of troops. After last year's winter offensive and this year's summer defense, the strength of many divisions has been almost exhausted. In the West, I saw many units transferred from the Eastern Front for rest that were severely understrength, some even by a third to a quarter. Until they are replenished, these forces cannot be used again. Second, our forces are too dispersed. I agree with the strategic direction of advancing toward the Caucasus and Stalingrad, but the current troop strength on the Eastern Front is far from sufficient to support such a strategy."
While speaking, Zeitzler quietly observed the Führer's expression. To tell the truth, he personally harbored great doubts about the Caucasus campaign, but Schmundt had warned him beforehand not to obstruct the southern flank strategy that the Führer valued most. He decided to comply after consideration, though he still had to offer his nuanced opinion.
"General Guderian, what is your opinion?" After listening to Zeitzler's statement, Hoffman was non-committal and showed no signs of bias, simply turning to Guderian with a calm expression, which surprised the latter—since when had the Führer become so composed?
"My respected Führer." Guderian put down his knife and fork, "Frankly speaking, I have been away from the front line for these past few months. Although I am aware of some situations, they may not necessarily align with the actual reality, so my judgment..."
Hoffman knew his concerns and waved his hand with a smile, "This is not a formal operational seminar, and there are no meeting minutes that need to be distributed afterwards. It is purely the Supreme Commander listening to advisory opinions, so you don't need to have any reservations. Being straightforward would seem better—at this time last year, if it weren't for my generals acting one way to my face and another behind my back, perhaps we would already be discussing post-war reconstruction by now."
Guderian blushed. He, of course, knew what the Führer meant by "acting one way to my face and another behind my back": Before the Battle of Moscow, the commanders of the armies on the Eastern Front aimed for Moscow, while the Führer's goal was first Ukraine and then Moscow. He requested that Guderian's armored group be sent to the Army Group South to support operations. As a result, Commander-in-Chief of the Army Brauchitsch, Chief of General Staff Halder, and Commander of Army Group Center Field Marshal Bock all opposed it, using overt and covert methods to discount the Führer's orders. The armored units of Army Group Center were preparing to advance on Moscow while simultaneously diverting forces to support the direction of Ukraine. The result of this was that the troops neither struck directly at Moscow as the generals had envisioned, nor did they capture Ukraine as quickly as the Führer had envisioned before turning back to attack Moscow. The five weeks of best weather slipped away in meaningless arguments, and then came the defeat in the Battle of Moscow. Subsequently, Brauchitsch was removed as Commander-in-Chief of the Army, Bock was removed as Commander of Army Group Center, he, Guderian, was forced into the reserves, and now it was finally Halder's turn.
"Looking back now and thinking about it calmly, the Führer's original decision was indeed wise; it is just a pity that we had deviations in communication and execution." The armored force commander who had been in the predicament of being pulled in two directions at that time was Guderian himself, but one could not hear any complaints in his current words. Zeitzler couldn't help but give him a thumbs-up in his heart. The few months in the reserves certainly weren't spent in vain; the usually annoying Guderian had now improved his level of speech.
Guderian continued: "Regarding the next step in strategy on the Eastern Front, my thoughts might... might be a bit passive—I think we should conserve our strength this year, focus on offensive defense, deplete the Russians' manpower, and wait another year before launching a full-scale offensive."
Zeitzler was startled, but Hoffman nodded slightly: "Tell me your reasons."
"The reasons are mainly two points. First is the troop strength issue that General Zeitzler mentioned just now. Our army strength on the Eastern Front is about 3 million; adding the allied forces, it is at most 3.5 million. But the enemies we need to face are at least 4.5 million. On other fronts like the Western Front, the Balkans, and North Africa, we still have 1 million troops, but they are facing even more British and Americans. Stalin is estimated to have over 2 million in reserves, and he doesn't have to worry about the Japanese behind him. Second is the equipment issue. Whether in artillery or armored forces, the Russians' numbers are at least half again as many as ours. Although they are clumsy when using them, this numerical superiority is hard to ignore. Even more fatal is that in the crucial armored forces, we not only lack numerical superiority but have even lost the quality advantage—we find it very difficult to cope with the Russians' T-34 and KV-1. I heard that the No. 5 tank (Panther) has basically finished development, and the No. 6 tank (Tiger) has also been successfully manufactured. If we can have one year for large-scale re-equipping, the Empire's armored forces can regain the upper hand, and the same goes for air power." Guderian finished stating his point in one breath and then waited anxiously for Hoffman's verdict.
"There is one point I would like to correct. According to the intelligence gathered from the front line and my judgment, the Russians' front-line troop strength is not the 4.5 million you estimated, but between 5.5 and 6 million. The estimate of 2 million in reserves is also logical. Additionally, the Russians' numerical superiority in armored vehicles and artillery might be even greater than you think—they not only exceed us in manufacturing numbers, but they are also being supplied by the British and Americans—just in the first half of this year, Stalin received no less than 1,000 tanks from Churchill and Roosevelt, so." Hoffman said unhurriedly, "We have destroyed 400-500 of Stalin's divisions, but he still has at least 500 divisions left. I believe your judgment is correct; we should shift to strategic defense. The offensives in the two directions of the Caucasus and Stalingrad can be selectively halted. If necessary, the current salients in the northern and central sectors of the Eastern Front can also be straightened out to save manpower."
"What?" Now it was Zeitzler and Guderian's turn to be shocked. Is this still the Führer who always insisted on fighting to the end and refused to give up even an inch of acquired land? Such an adjustment almost completely reversed the strategic direction determined at the turn of summer and autumn, and the magnitude was so great that it left them somewhat dumbfounded.