Chapter 76: No Such Thing as Too Much Trouble
"What does the letter say?" Tyrion asked curiously.
"It's not good news." Egger's brow furrowed deeper. "As of the time this letter was sent, Benjen and his ranging party still haven't returned to Castle Black. Mormont sent out several additional waves of men but failed to find any trace of them. Consequently, he's preparing to organize a large-scale, deep reconnaissance mission to the North. The letter doesn't just demand that Yoren return to the Wall with the recruits as quickly as possible; it also tasks me with preparing a batch of weapons capable of fighting White Walkers, cold-weather gear, and portable rations to be sent north."
"Why is it White Walkers again?"
Tyrion was perplexed. He truly didn't believe in myths and legends, but since the two were currently business partners operating with a high degree of transparency, he couldn't see why Egger would bother lying to him about something so irrelevant.
When a person you trust repeats something you don't believe in a serious and solemn tone multiple times, it makes you uncharacteristically waver... Shaking his head, the dwarf abandoned his thoughts on White Walkers and stroked his chin. "Wait, that's not right. Wasn't our first batch of supplies already sent out? By our agreement, the next batch shouldn't be for another month or two. What's the meaning of pressing for them now?"
"The ship likely hasn't reached Eastwatch yet; it's a long way from King's Landing, after all." Egger's expression was grim. "I'll have to push for the obsidian mining in a couple of days. That's my personal business, so let's not discuss it further. Let's eat and rest."
Egger just wanted to start a business with Tyrion in King's Landing, live a decent life once he'd made it, and mind his own business. Why did the tides of the plot have to be so persistent, refusing to give him even a moment of peace?
Benjen Stark's disappearance was technically expected, but the situation was different now. Back at the Wall, Egger had assumed the First Ranger's insistence on heading north to find traces of White Walkers was merely out of a sense of duty and stubbornness. But after learning a wealth of inside information from Melisandre, his perspective had shifted. He had a faint feeling—Benjen's disappearance and transformation into Coldhands might very well be the arrangement of the Old Gods, or rather, the Three-Eyed Raven.
That false god likely needed a servant who didn't require supplies because he wasn't alive and wouldn't be easily detected by wights because he had no body heat to operate north of the Wall. This would ensure that Bran would still have someone to receive him after passing through the Wall into the wilderness. Taking it a step further, the direwolf pups might have been sent to the Stark children for the same reason—their warging nature needed a medium to activate... especially for Bran. Having a companion like a direwolf, far stronger and more sensitive than a human, would undoubtedly make the journey north to receive his inheritance much safer.
...
Stop. Egger pinched his thigh, reminding himself of that iron rule: Everything can be explained by a conspiracy theory, but that doesn't mean everything actually is a conspiracy. Instead of wasting time overthinking the Three-Eyed Raven's arrangements, he was better off thinking about events that hadn't happened yet—events that concerned his own interests and might still be changed: the large-scale northern reconnaissance Mormont was about to organize.
This bold military action, known as the Great Ranging, wasn't inherently a wrong decision—with the cream of their fighting force mobilized, three hundred men of the Night's Watch were almost an unstoppable force beyond the Wall. Without the coordination and siege of thousands of wildlings, it would be impossible to eliminate a group of able-bodied men, half of whom were professional soldiers. Unfortunately, the expeditionary force at the Fist of the First Men didn't encounter wildlings, but an army of the dead—an incomprehensible force they had never faced before...
In that battle, the already weakened Night's Watch lost nearly all its elite fighting strength, including the rangers, and most of its command structure. Only two-thirds of the old, weak, and sick remained to hold the forts. It was a crippling blow that shattered morale. If it were a normal army, the unit designation would have been struck from the records. Even as they clung on, they were almost defenseless against the subsequent wildling assaults, barely managing to hold back the first probing attacks...
At this thought, a subconscious idea struck Egger: could the Three-Eyed Raven be intentionally facilitating this ranging so that the Night's Watch would be severely weakened, allowing the wildlings to easily cross the Wall and hide behind it, thereby preventing the White Walkers from bolstering their army of the dead?
But he immediately dismissed the thought. He was becoming neurotic because of the existence of these supernatural powers, unable to stop himself from relating everything to them. Setting aside the fact that the Three-Eyed Raven couldn't possibly command the army of wights, wouldn't it be much simpler to just plant the idea of letting the Free Folk pass the Wall directly into Mormont's mind if he wanted them south?
Furthermore, judging from the original plot, the so-called whispers and subconscious nudges from these gods might not be as powerful, direct, or effective as he thought—the Three-Eyed Raven was currently in a weakened, dying state. It was highly probable that initiating this ranging was truly just Mormont's personal idea.
Calm down. What should a rational person think about right now?
—Does this plot point affect me? Do I need to intervene? If so, how?
In terms of results, the crushing defeat of the Great Ranging and the mutiny at Craster's Keep directly led to the death of that old fox Mormont and the eventual rise of Jon Snow. On one hand, the severe weakening of the Night's Watch and the rise to power of his know-nothing young friend might make his own plans to increase his influence and lay the groundwork for leaving the Order much easier... But on the other hand, the southern part of the plot had already undergone a butterfly effect change due to his meddling. If the War of the Five Kings didn't happen, Stannis wouldn't be able to rush to the Wall at the critical moment to repulse the wildlings. If the Night's Watch couldn't hold the Wall and was wiped out, letting the wildlings into the North, what would happen to him—a lone fish caught in the net down south?
Wait. If the War of the Five Kings didn't happen, the Northern lords would have the strength and reason to send troops north to help; it was still unlikely the wildlings would successfully enter the lands south of the Wall... and participants always have a say. If these Great Houses of the North mobilized their armies to help defend the Wall, they would surely dictate terms to the Night's Watch. Where would that leave him—the far-away, self-appointed Chief Logistics Officer in King's Landing? No one could say for sure.
...
After a brief mental simulation, Egger quickly became dizzy. Too many factors influenced future developments. Researching and predicting future situations was a job for massive think tanks and national agencies. For one man to complete the work of a team was an impossible task—not to mention that even those professionals and teams made mistakes when they were supposed to.
He had neither the ability to preview the future nor Littlefinger's talent for profiting from chaos. Thinking about these issues felt like a waste of energy. What should he do? The path of least resistance was to do nothing, provide the supplies as Mormont instructed, and let them fend for themselves...
Suddenly, a plot point he'd seen in the final seasons of the TV show before his transmigration gave the Watchman inspiration. In the original plot, it wasn't until the War of the Five Kings had been decided—with those who should be dead, dead, and those who should flee, fled—and Daenerys had finished her adventures in the East and returned to Westeros, that Jon Snow foolishly led a group beyond the Wall to capture a wight and bring it to King's Landing to show the world, saying: Your previous wars were all nonsense; the real enemy is here!
Because of that stupid and belated excursion beyond the Wall, Daenerys even gave the Night King a dragon capable of destroying the Wall—the writers made the story go that way undoubtedly for plot necessity and to balance the power between the two sides. But Egger was different. He wasn't a writer; he was a transmigrator, and he didn't care at all if his story was exciting. If possible, he wished those thrilling stories wouldn't happen at all. He wished he could strangle all the White Walkers in their nest so not a single one could get out. He wished he could just live out his life in peace and safety until he died in his bed of old age.
If, at this critical turning point in history, the Night's Watch could capture a wight and send it to King's Landing to show Robert—who was busy drinking and feasting in the Red Keep, thinking everything was fine and the world was still at peace because he'd dragged his friend Ned to play the game of thrones in his stead—what kind of explosive impact would it have on the future?
Since he'd decided to change the plot and had already started making trouble, he wasn't afraid of making it big!
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