Chapter 46: The Great Fundraising Scheme
A lowly man of the Night's Watch was directing the Hand of the King to draft a written certification as if he were a king himself. Egger had certainly taken advantage of his black garbs—which lowered the other man's guard significantly—but as he walked out of the Tower of the Hand clutching the document sealed with the direwolf stamp, he couldn't help but marvel: as it turned out, provided you mastered the right methods, these high-and-mighty Great Lords were just as easy to fool as commoners.
No wonder Littlefinger could thrive in King's Landing, twisting Baratheons, Starks, and Lannisters around his finger.
Lies, truly, were effective.
...
The sky was dark by the time they returned to the inn. Egger didn't drag Yoren out for any more errands; after a night of honest rest in his room, he welcomed his second day of life in the capital.
"Yesterday you ran off to get two men, a building, and a certificate from Eddard Stark?" Curiosity gleamed in Tyrion's eyes. Based on two months of experience together, there was bound to be a trick involved, and Egger's explanations always broadened his horizons. "I can understand the first two, but what use is the certificate?"
"To swindle money."
"Swindle?" Tyrion started. "If Eddard Stark discovers you're using a document he signed to swindle money... well, he might not have the authority to punish you, but with a single letter, you'd likely be recalled instantly."
"When we arrived in King's Landing yesterday and passed through the gates, you made an assessment of the 'Hand's Tourney,' remember?" Egger didn't respond directly to Tyrion's warning, shifting instead to another topic. "I agreed with one thing you said—that hosting these events makes the kingdom prosper. At the cost of a mountain of debt for the Iron Throne, the participants, spectators, and businessmen are all left happy. The King indeed spent a lot of money, but that money didn't vanish; rather, in the form of consumption for the event, it circulated and stimulated economic development, moving from the vaults of the Lannisters and the Great Guilds into the hands of the commoners, merchants, and winners. Whether he intended it or not, the King's profligacy was, at least in this regard, not entirely without merit."
Tyrion didn't interrupt. He was curious to hear what unique insights his adventurer friend from Cathay had regarding Robert Baratheon's extravagance.
"However, for a large portion of that money, the journey ends there. Westerosi people love to hoard money far too much. The rich hide gold, the commoners hide silver, and the poorer ones hide coppers... unless absolutely necessary, they'd rather hide it until they die or it's stolen than spend it. Once King Robert spends the money and it enters the hands of the people, at least half of it settles there as hoarded savings, failing to re-enter circulation. This is extremely detrimental to social development. I intend to 'swindle' this money out and make it work."
"I've heard similar rhetoric from a certain Maester in Oldtown; the sentiment is the same—gold piled in a treasury is no different from stones." Tyrion looked up at Egger. "Currency circulation brings economic prosperity; everyone understands that. But irregular seasons and wars make people worry about tomorrow. Unless that reality changes, you can't convince people to bring out their money just by talking reason."
"Changing the spending habits of all Westerosi is a bit whimsical; I'm not that ambitious. I don't ask them to spend the money, only that they be willing to lend it to me." Egger smiled. "People hoard money because they fear that if they spend it, they won't earn it back in the future. So, what if I tell them that by lending it to me, the money will automatically breed more money?"
Tyrion caught the loophole in Egger's words: "You say 'you tell' them, which means you don't actually have a way to make the money breed."
"Indeed, at least not for now. But once I find the right channels, I will," Egger said. "And until then, I'll use other means to make people believe they have something to gain by lending to me—the method being to return a little extra when I pay them back."
"Interest."
"Yes, and interest higher than a normal loan. For instance, one percent a month. You lend me a hundred gold dragons today, and a month later, I return a hundred and one."
"And where does that extra one come from?"
"From those who haven't asked for their money back yet."
"This..." For a resident of a continent like Westeros, where even banks were rare—let alone the concept of investment—Egger's words were indeed difficult to grasp. Fortunately, Tyrion had a quick mind. "But this will be exposed one day. If suddenly everyone demands their money back on the same day, what will you do?"
"You've hit the nail on the head. If that happens, it's a 'break in the capital chain.' Forget me; even an entity as powerful and wealthy as the Iron Bank would go bankrupt instantly. My job is to prevent that from happening," Egger said. "I'll use small rules or bait—for example: no interest if the money is withdrawn in less than a month, interest rises to one and a half percent if the loan exceeds several months, and a withdrawal resets the clock... and so on."
"But no matter what you do, if the money doesn't ultimately increase, the day the scam is broken will come sooner or later!"
"Sooner or later? Plenty of things happen 'sooner or later'—men die sooner or later, dynasties topple sooner or later, the world ends sooner or later. As long as I can find a way to delay that date indefinitely—pushing it into a distant future I'll never see—how is it different from not existing at all?"
"That's sophistry, Egger." For the first time, Tyrion looked nervous and disapproving. "Don't do this. It's better to keep your feet on the ground. If you go about it this way, no one will be able to save your life when things fall apart. If you just want to fulfill your mission, my pocket money is enough to pay your way."
Egger felt a bit helpless. He had thought a clever man like Tyrion would be more receptive to new things, but it seemed his plan was still too advanced for someone of this world. He had to find another way to convince him.
"What I've said is only the beginning stage of the plan. You're right; once this 'scheme' reaches its middle stage, I will have to find ways to actually make the money grow—like investing in certain merchant guilds, expanding the Night's Watch fleet to increase trade between the Watch, the Gift, and the lands across the Narrow Sea... using real profits to pay the interest."
"Provided nothing goes wrong in the early stages of your plan."
"It won't," Egger said. "I now have certifications from the Lord Commander and the Hand of the King. By borrowing in the name of the Brotherhood rather than myself, even if I don't get much, I won't walk away empty-handed... And once the principal and interest of the first round are paid off once, establishing the confidence of the investors—no, the creditors—everything following will get smoother and smoother. Tyrion, what's the most you can produce right now?"
"Less than a thousand gold dragons. Four or five hundred of that is for the supplies I promised as 'ransom' for your freedom from the Wall. Since the agreement with your Chief Steward and Builder was for specific types and quantities of goods, I have to pray prices haven't risen while I've been away from the capital."
"Fine, let's assume you have three hundred dragons in cash. What can that do?" Egger refused to give up the persuasion. "It's enough to buy a batch of supplies to win me another two or three months of freedom, but it wouldn't even be enough to kickstart the dragonglass mining."
"I'll find a way for you. My brother has some money and doesn't spend much; if it comes to it, I can go to my father for more. It won't be a massive amount, but it won't be small..." Tyrion interrupted Egger firmly. "Regardless, deception is shameful. I will not help you with your plan."
...
Seeing Tyrion's serious and insistent expression, Egger suddenly realized where the problem lay. At the start of the conversation, he had jokingly referred to what he was doing as swindling money. He had intended it as a jest, but it had backfired, and the other man had taken it literally.
He cursed himself silently, his mind racing to find a way to salvage this blunder.
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