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Chapter 38 - Chapter 38 Probability

Connie, who was also watching the game from the sofa, looked even more focused than George, so much so that she forgot to drink the beer in her hand.

"Come on, I don't care about the process, please God, let the Longhorns ultimately win in terms of score..." Connie prayed aloud.

"Mom, are you gambling again?" Mary, who was knitting a scarf nearby, asked in surprise.

During this period, because Mike would occasionally cook at home, Connie saved a little money.

Connie, who loved to play, naturally used this money for some small entertainment activities.

However, her luck recently seemed not very good. Not only did she lose all her principal, but she also owed some external debts.

Hearing Mary's question, Connie still tried to deny it: "No, I didn't."

However, this time, Connie bet on the Longhorns to win entirely because the name Longhorn sounded more pleasing to her ear.

Connie was not good at this kind of purely probabilistic gambling.

On the outer side of the sofa, Sheldon, in order to appear sociable, also sat in front of the TV. However, his attention remained on the science textbook in his hand.

Hearing the intense discussion among everyone, he took a moment to look up at the game on TV.

At this time, the Longhorns's punter had already entered the field and was preparing to make a big kick.

Sheldon, seeing this, thought for a moment and said, "Statistically speaking, always choosing to punt on the fourth down is very unwise..."

In front of the TV, Georgie, who was also concerned about the Longhorns, shared his father's view and also thought that punting at this time was a very reasonable choice.

Hearing Sheldon's differing opinion, Georgie retorted, "Statistics? I think you're just a big idiot."

In Georgie's opinion, Sheldon, who had never played football, had no right to speak.

However, Sheldon didn't care about Georgie's disdain. He analyzed seriously: "Data shows that when a team is attacked by an opponent within their own five-yard line, the opponent has a 92% chance of scoring.

And when this team chooses to punt deep in their own territory, the opponent still has a 77% chance of scoring.

But if this team chooses to continue the offense, then they will have a 50% chance of getting another four-down opportunity (by drawing a penalty).

Therefore, the data shows that the Longhorns should not choose to punt."

Sheldon's analysis was well-reasoned and well-supported, which temporarily silenced everyone on the sofa, even George looked like he was questioning life.

Then, Connie looked at the smart and clever Sheldon, smiled, leaned into her daughter's ear, and whispered, "Mary, tell me secretly, who exactly is his father?"

From a genetic perspective, both George and his son have ordinary intelligence, but Sheldon's intelligence is excessively high.

Hearing Connie's teasing, Mary rolled her eyes and continued knitting her scarf.

Beside them, George, as the team's coach, reacted for a while and then said, "Sheldon, I've been involved in football my whole life, and experience tells me you're wrong."

"Is that so? Please wait..." After being questioned, Sheldon tilted his small face and thought for a moment, then affirmed, "I calculated correctly, the Longhorns losing possession will only allow the opponent to score 6 more points..."

As Sheldon explained, the Longhorns, who had exchanged possession due to the punt on TV, was indeed scored upon by the opponent for 6 points.

Amidst a chorus of wails, Connie approached Mary again: "Honestly tell me, is his biological father that dentist with the small glasses?"

"Mom..." Mary gave her mother a speechless glare, indicating she didn't want to talk.

And Coach George, who had been proven wrong, had no mind to analyze the game for Mike for the rest of the time.

Half an hour later, the Longhorns was defeated by a large margin.

Connie cursed loudly and was about to pull out her Longhorns betting slip to tear it up, but seeing Mary's gaze, she immediately calmed down.

Coach George, who was beside her, had been in no mood to watch the game since that punt by the Longhorns.

He was still thinking about Sheldon's words. Now that the game was over, George still couldn't help but say, "Sheldon, although the Longhorns ultimately lost. But their decision to punt in the third quarter was absolutely correct..."

Georgie also began to denounce Sheldon at this point, attributing all of the Longhorns's failure to Sheldon.

Sheldon, who didn't want to engage in a meaningless argument with the two, turned his gaze to Mike: "Mike, as the second smartest person in the family, please tell them if my deduction is correct."

Looking at the other party's self-assured look, Mike really wanted to tell Sheldon that his intelligence would one day surpass him.

Then, facing everyone's gaze, Mike thought for a moment and said, "Sheldon's analysis is correct, but he didn't take into account the strength of the players on the field.

After the first two quarters of the game, it was clear that the Longhorns's overall strength was significantly lower than their opponent's.

In that third-quarter drive, whether they chose to punt or not, the outcome was already determined.

For the entire game, the Longhorns's probability of losing was 99.9%."

"Thank you for your addition—" Sheldon closed his book and continued, "Next time, I will take other factors into consideration."

After speaking, Sheldon hugged his thick textbook and walked towards his room.

Connie, seeing this, also felt the betting slip in her pocket and followed him.

After Sheldon had been gone for a while, George finally organized his words and said seriously to Mike, "I don't believe that probability can overshadow the players' efforts."

"Of course, that's the charm of sports competition." Mike nodded, indicating agreement.

His previous guess that the Longhorns had a 99.9% chance of losing was precisely to leave some room for error.

Upon receiving Mike's approval, Coach George's expression brightened considerably.

Then, he said, "Next week, Sam will be back."

Although Sam's personality was not likable, he was, after all, a veteran of the football team and had participated in many games with the team.

If he couldn't return to the team on time, Mike still had a chance to become the starting running back.

However, now that Sam chose to return at this time, out of consideration for personal favors, Coach George couldn't directly remove him from the starting lineup.

"I understand." Mike instantly understood Coach George's predicament. Looking at his apologetic expression, he added, "I will follow the team's arrangements."

Seeing Mike being so "sensible," Coach George hesitated for a moment and promised, "Don't worry, Mike. I guarantee you'll have a chance to play in the game."

Medford High's football team was not strong, often being eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

This was also the reason why Coach George didn't dare to immediately put Mike, who had no game experience, on the field.

Everything was for better results.

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