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House Lannister's ancestors had used Casterly Rock as their stronghold to firmly control the Westerlands.
Tywin had placed his hopes on his descendants doing the same—reviving the family's glory just as their forefathers had.
In short, he trusted in the wisdom of future generations.
Though he told himself he must accept defeat when the game was lost, this defeat was simply too thorough. If it weren't for the fact that he had to consider the survival of a House that had stood for thousands of years, he would have taken his army and met Jon on the field for a final, desperate clash.
Even though holding only Casterly Rock meant the Lannisters would soon fall from the ranks of the Great Houses, the castle itself provided an incredibly high floor for their decline. From the safety of the Rock, they could strike out at others, but no one could strike back at them. They would be safe, while their enemies could only stare up at the stone walls in frustration.
If the political tides shifted in the future, they could seize the opportunity to reclaim the Westerlands.
When Tywin decided to bend the knee to King's Landing, he also ordered strict rationing of the water supply to prevent shortages, ensuring no accidents occurred during this sensitive time.
Jon, however, intercepted Tywin's raven almost as soon as it left the rookery.
According to Sandor Clegane, Casterly Rock's fresh water reserves would run dry in a week or two at most. When that happened, Jon could take the castle without shedding a drop of blood.
Of course, it might rain again during that time, meaning he might have to perform his "artificial rainfall" trick once more.
He also had to guard against the possibility of Tywin making a reckless last stand. Given the Old Lion's nature, he would surely gamble everything on a final strike before being backed into a corner.
King's Landing also needed watching. If anyone with ill intent learned of the situation here, they would undoubtedly try to pull some underhanded moves.
Just as Jon was preparing to send more ravens to monitor Casterly Rock, Melisandre paid him a sudden visit.
Her stoic, poker-faced expression made it impossible for Jon to guess her intentions, but he treated her with courtesy nonetheless.
However, she didn't even accept his offer to sit. Standing in the doorway, she asked bluntly, "My Lord, it seems you are a skinchanger?"
Has she seen through me? Since when? A flicker of apprehension crossed Jon's mind. He had been using his warging abilities frequently of late; the chance of being discovered was high.
Jon knew that since she asked, she must already be certain or have proof. And considering she was a woman capable of real magic, he decided there was no point in hiding it. He admitted it directly.
"Yes. Ghost—my wolf—and the ravens. I can slip into their skins."
"When did you discover this ability?"
"At the Wall," Jon replied. "There were skinchangers among the wildlings. I learned from them."
"So, you intercepted the ravens from Casterly Rock?"
"Correct. It seems Tywin intends to sue for peace with King Stannis." Jon showed her the golden message tube.
"You intercepted Tywin's letter and intend to burn it, seemingly wishing to keep King Stannis in the dark?" Melisandre's dark red eyes bored into him, as if peering straight into his soul.
"I didn't think that far ahead. His Grace is just. I am on the verge of taking Casterly Rock, and I trust the King will not go back on his word." Jon's mind raced, trying to find a way to navigate this interrogation.
"I advise you to abandon Casterly Rock," Melisandre said, her tone flat.
Jon was startled. He hadn't expected her to say that.
"In the flames, I saw the black three-headed dragon banner flying over the battlements of Casterly Rock." Melisandre held his gaze. "This signifies that it will likely fall to a Targaryen in the end. If you take the castle, you may find yourself facing dragonfire in the future."
"A Targaryen?" Jon feigned just the right amount of shock.
So, Melisandre had seen a warning in the fire: Casterly Rock falling into Targaryen hands.
To her, this vision likely meant one of two things: either the Lannisters would surrender to a Targaryen invader, or Jon would be killed by one.
Perhaps because of the "dream" Jon had told her about previously, Melisandre didn't suspect him of betraying Stannis.
Thus, through her logic, these were the only reasonable conclusions.
" The choice is yours. I have found that often, even when I foresee fate, I cannot change it." There was a rare note of resignation in the Red Woman's voice, which surprised Jon.
But he quickly realized what she was referring to.
She had seen Renly attacking Stannis's army in her fires, so she had used her magic to kill him, believing it would prevent the battle.
Yet in the end, Garlan Tyrell had worn Renly's armor and led the charge anyway.
The event had caused Melisandre to doubt her own interpretations.
"If you insist on taking Casterly Rock, you may die by Targaryen hands in the future. If you abandon it, you may still die by their hands elsewhere. This is your fate. If you are determined to siege the castle, then pretend I never spoke these words. I will not speak of this to the King. Go and meet your destiny."
With that, Melisandre turned and left.
Jon didn't know the art of prophecy, but based on what Melisandre revealed, he had a different interpretation: He would be the one raising the Targaryen banner over Casterly Rock, reclaiming his true name.
It wasn't hard to deduce, but Jon had no desire to contend for the Iron Throne so soon. At least, not in the few years remaining before winter came and the Others invaded.
According to his memories, winter would fall in a little over two years. He was only sixteen; if he truly wanted the throne, waiting a few years wouldn't hurt.
First, he had to survive the Long Night and the White Walkers. For now, he only wanted enough power and strength to protect himself. He had no interest in that uncomfortable iron chair.
Besides, in Westeros, the King's power was limited.
When the Targaryens conquered the Seven Kingdoms, they relied on the overwhelming might of their dragons to enforce their rule. They never built a bureaucratic system or power structure suitable for a massive empire.
If Jon were King, he would at least expand the Crownlands to include the Riverlands and bring key fortresses like the Bloody Gate, the Golden Tooth, and the Neck under direct royal control.
But the Targaryens, relying on their dragons, did none of this. Once the dragons were gone, they couldn't do it.
For a high lord, their word was law within their own castle and lands.
After the dragons died out, Targaryen authority began to wane, and by then, it was too late to fix the system.
Eventually, the throne was seized by the Baratheons—descendants of Aegon the Conqueror's most trusted hand.
If Jon ever sought to rule the Seven Kingdoms, he wouldn't want just a crown; he would want to be a true monarch, uniting the realm under a single, absolute authority.
Melisandre's visit was a minor interlude. Jon had another meeting to attend—with Ser Garlan Tyrell.
Sure enough, when Jon found Garlan, the knight was just about to write to Highgarden to report on Jon's progress.
"Ser Garlan, I would ask that you hold off on writing to Highgarden for now. I wish to give Margaery a surprise."
"A surprise?" Garlan looked at Jon, seemingly confused by the request.
Through their interactions, Jon had come to understand Garlan's character: fierce on the battlefield, but a bit slow on the uptake, giving him a somewhat dopey demeanor.
Whenever he spoke to Garlan, Jon found himself unconsciously adopting a tone one might use with a child.
He wasn't stopping Garlan because he distrusted the Tyrells, but because this was a critical moment. Casterly Rock would fall within a fortnight, and he couldn't afford any accidents.
He didn't want news leaking from Highgarden.
"Yes, look, victory is within our grasp, but we haven't won the war just yet. I want to wait until our banners are flying from the battlements of Casterly Rock before we send the good news to Lord Mace, Lady Olenna, and Lady Margaery."
Jon smiled and sat next to Garlan, their shoulders touching in a gesture of intimacy.
If someone tries to get too close to you, push them away. His brother Willas's advice echoed in Garlan's head. But for some reason, he didn't dislike this young man who was several years his junior, so he didn't push him away.
Garlan considered Jon's reasoning for a moment, then shook his head. "But Grandmother told me I must report the situation at the front promptly. Jon, I cannot agree to this. I only listen to my family." As he spoke, Garlan pressed his forearm over the letter on the table, as if afraid Jon might snatch it.
Highgarden had its own couriers; Jon couldn't just warg into a raven to intercept a man on a horse.
"But we are family now," Jon said, spreading his hands. "I'm betrothed to Margaery. In the future, Margaery's and my children will call you Uncle."
"Oh! That's right. We are family now." Garlan looked as if he'd had a sudden epiphany, smoothing his brown hair as he nodded.
"Exactly, we're family," Jon said, striking while the iron was hot. He reached out to gently take the quill from Garlan's hand. "Wait until we occupy Casterly Rock, then send both letters together. Lord Mace, Lady Olenna, and Margaery will be even happier then. We fight these wars so our families can be safe and happy, don't you agree?"
Listening to Jon's coaxing tone, Garlan's grip on the quill slowly loosened.
Jon planned to notify the Citadel via Highgarden immediately after taking the castle. He wanted the Maesters to announce his conquest of Casterly Rock to the entire realm.
With all the lords of the Seven Kingdoms watching, his ascension as Lord of Casterly Rock would be cemented beyond dispute.