Horizon Scanning (Environmental Scanning) — Notes
Definition:
Systematic exploration of the external environment to understand change and identify future opportunities or threats.
Purpose:
1. Understand the nature and speed of change in the environment.
2. Identify potential opportunities, challenges, and future developments relevant to the organization.
Focus Areas:
New, unusual, or emerging ideas ("weird" trends).
Persistent trends and challenges that continue over time.
Importance:
First step in futures research and strategic foresight.
Provides input for strategic thinking, innovation, and risk management.
Horizon Scanning — Quick study notes
Definition (one line):
Systematic, evidence-based search of the external environment to spot signals of change and possible future opportunities/threats.
Main objectives:
Detect trends/events (economic, social, tech, political, environmental, health, cultural).
Identify opportunities and threats for the organization.
Determine the organization's strengths/limitations.
Provide evidence for future investments and decisions.
Analogy:
Early-warning radar — continuous scanning, locating sources, evaluating likelihood, monitoring growth/spread.
Why it matters:
Feedstock for strategic thinking, innovation, risk management and selecting preferable futures.
Scope to scan:
Focal signals: what's obvious and topical today.
Peripheral signals: unusual, emerging, "weird" ideas and wild cards.
Hard sources: quantitative datasets, stats.
Soft sources: expert views, press releases, conferences, websites, reports.
Approach / process:
1. Define focus / priority question (what decision or issue are you scanning for).
2. Search systematically (formal methods, not casual browsing).
3. Collect & evaluate signals (likelihood, drivers, velocity).
4. Monitor & track growth/spread over time.
5. Analyze & model possible/probable futures.
6. Feed into strategy (choose preferable futures → plan action).
Practical tips:
Be curious — look outside the box.
Use both focal and peripheral vision (perceived vs pertinent environment).
Follow links broadly — serendipity helps, but stop when you've exhausted the key possibilities.
Keep scanning focused on a decision or program to avoid aimless searching.
Treat scanning as continuous, not one-off.
One-sentence takeaway:
Horizon Scanning is a disciplined, ongoing early-warning process that turns diverse external signals into actionable insight for future strategy.
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Scanning for Insight – Change Lifecycles
Concept:
Change develops in stages — from emerging issue → growing trend → mainstream awareness.
Observation Levels:
Early stage (weak signals): few observable cases, low public awareness → need special sources (experts, niche media, research papers).
Later stage (clear trend): many cases, high public awareness → data easier to collect (reports, news, statistics).
Goal of Scanning:
Monitor the entire change curve — from early signals to mature trends.
Why important:
Early detection = more time to prepare or innovate.
Later data = more evidence for decisions.
Need to balance weak-signal intuition with evidence-based validation.
Key practice:
Maintain a clear audit trail — track how raw evidence and intelligence lead to final conclusions or strategic insights.
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✅ Summary line:
Horizon Scanning tracks changes from faint early signals to major trends, using suitable sources at each stage and documenting evidence carefully to support sound strategy.
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Scanning for Insight – Managing Change
Purpose:
Understand and track how change appears and evolves — from early weak signals to mature trends or transformations.
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Types / Forms of Reported Change
Type Meaning / Example
Emerging change Newly appearing topic or development.
Background Reference/data sources giving context.
Difference Noticeable deviation from the norm.
Policy Rules, plans, or regulations indicating direction.
Trend Clear pattern or tendency over time.
Weak signal Early, odd, or fringe idea; few data points.
Perspective Mainstream concern or accepted view.
Discovery First-time finding or realization.
Transformation Major or revolutionary shift.
Event Sudden incident or disruption.
Uncertainty Confusion, ambiguity, or doubt.
Wild card Surprise event (e.g., "Black Swan").
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Change Stages
Early stage (Weak signals):
Few data points → use case studies.
Sources: blogs, fringe media, niche conferences.
Mature stage (Trends):
More data and recognition → clearer direction.
Sources: formal reports, academic or policy articles.
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What Horizon Scanning Covers
Range:
Mainstream issues: climate change, energy security, food supply.
Novel/fringe issues: transhumanism, animal extinction, flying cars.
Core idea:
Looks at both expected and unexpected developments to spot uncertainties, opportunities, and threats for the future.
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✅ Summary line:
Horizon Scanning manages change by identifying and tracking signals—from strange, early hints to full trends—across mainstream and emerging issues to prepare for future opportunities and risks.
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Adopting a Worldview – Myopia
Meaning of Myopia:
Mental narrowness or short-sightedness — seeing only familiar patterns and ignoring unusual or contradictory signals.
Leads to blind spots in scanning and decision-making.
Why it happens:
The mind seeks patterns and avoids what doesn't fit.
When facing uncertainty, people rely on what's already known ("certainty trap").
Existing beliefs and assumptions filter what we notice or ignore.
Example:
The global financial crisis was largely missed despite clear warning signs — due to collective myopia.
Integral approach to scanning:
Be aware of intangible biases that shape what we scan.
Recognize that "there are no future facts" — stay open-minded.
Look beyond current benchmarks of right/wrong or normal/abnormal.
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✅ Summary line:
Myopia limits foresight by making us overlook signals that don't fit our beliefs; overcoming it requires open, unbiased, and integrative scanning.
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Adopting a Worldview – Knowing Your Thinking Style
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Key Idea
When scanning, your thinking style and biases shape what you notice, value, and ignore.
Scanning is subjective, so you must stay aware of your mental filters and avoid automatic assumptions.
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Common Cognitive Biases in Scanning
Bias Meaning / Effect
Excess Optimism Bias Overestimate success; underestimate risks.
Competitor Neglect Ignore competitors' likely responses.
Overconfidence Bias Overrate your own skill and influence.
Impact Bias Overestimate how long/intense a future event's effect will be.
Omission Bias Judge harmful actions worse than equally harmful inactions.
Not Invented Here Bias Reject ideas/products from outside sources.
Planning Fallacy Underestimate time needed for tasks.
Wishful Thinking Believe what feels good instead of what's true.
Early Hype Error Overrate short-term tech impact; underrate long-term impact.
Replacement Hype Error Expect new tech to quickly replace old — in reality, both coexist.
Enhancement Error Assume new tech only improves old systems — often creates new ones.
Panacea Error Believe tech can fix all social problems.
Patterning/Sense-making Error Fail to connect ideas across unrelated fields.
Social Impact Error Focus on tech, ignore social/economic consequences.
Prisoners of Our Times Error Assume today's big issues will remain tomorrow's.
Decision Criteria Error Think only rational economics drives choices — emotion also matters.
Information Gap Error Act on incomplete or hidden info (e.g., secret projects).
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Better Scanning Mindset
Accept uncertainty — scanning is not about being sure, but about being curious and open.
Think beyond familiar sources and assumptions.
Question everything:
Form hypotheses and test them.
Try to disprove your own ideas.
Don't dismiss ideas too early — even strange ones may matter.
Record insights as trends, uncertainties, or wildcards using stories/metaphors, not just data.
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Cognitive Style Dimensions
Left–Right Poles Meaning
Independent ↔ Interdependent Solo action vs. team-oriented approach.
Egalitarian ↔ Status Shared decision-making vs. hierarchy/respect for rank.
Risk ↔ Restraint Bold action vs. cautious, data-based moves.
Direct ↔ Indirect Open, explicit talk vs. contextual, implicit communication.
Task ↔ Relationship Focus on getting things done vs. building personal trust first.
Short Term ↔ Long Term Immediate results vs. future-oriented planning.
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Practical Advice
Use group scanning — diversity reduces personal bias.
Encourage right-pole thinking (collaborative, long-term, open-minded).
Stay semi-sceptical and restlessly curious — always test what you think you know.
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✅ Summary line:
Effective horizon scanning requires awareness of your cognitive style and biases, comfort with uncertainty, and openness to unfamiliar or contradictory information to truly see future possibilities.
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Ways of Seeing
Core idea:
Successful scanning means seeing connections between separate pieces of information — turning scattered data into meaningful patterns or "wholes."
It's about synthesizing, not just analyzing.
Why it matters:
Managers, policymakers, and consultants must use intuition and vision to spot new patterns that reveal future trends.
Helps move beyond current thinking and paradigms.
In practice:
When reading a scanning hit (a piece of information you find), focus on what it suggests about the future, not just what it says now.
Constantly expand your worldview to include new and unfamiliar perspectives.
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✅ Summary line:
Ways of Seeing in Horizon Scanning means connecting diverse signals into coherent patterns that reveal future possibilities beyond today's assumptions.
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Ways of Seeing – Brainstorming
Purpose:
Brainstorming helps you view the future from multiple angles instead of one fixed perspective.
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The 7 Vantage Points
Perspective Meaning / Purpose
Look ahead Anticipate what's coming next — future trends and possibilities.
Look behind Learn from the past — patterns, mistakes, and successes.
Look above Take a big-picture or "helicopter view" — see overall context.
Look below Search deeper for hidden insights — the "diamond in the rough."
Look beside Remove blinders — consider alternative viewpoints and parallels.
Look beyond Question what lies beyond the obvious horizon — explore emerging or unknown futures.
Look through Turn insights into action — apply your thinking practically.
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✅ Summary line:
Brainstorming in Horizon Scanning means exploring the future from many viewpoints—past, present, and beyond—to build a fuller, more insightful vision of what's coming.
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Ways of Seeing – Starbursting
Definition
Starbursting is a question-based foresight method used to explore how an issue may evolve by asking structured "Who, What, When, Where, Why, and How" questions.
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Six Key Questions
Question Purpose
Who? Identify key actors or stakeholders.
What? Describe possible or alternative futures.
When? Estimate when these futures might occur.
Where? Identify geographic areas most affected.
Why? Explore causes or drivers behind these futures.
How? Understand how these futures could emerge.
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Other Related Methods
Method Purpose
Snapshot Extracts key information from an insight.
Deception Detects false or misleading information.
Devil's Advocate Challenges others' analysis.
Ideation (McLuhan's Tetrad) Explores change and innovation possibilities.
Lifestyle Studies social and cultural impacts.
Post-Implementation Review Finds causes of past events or outcomes.
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Applications
Helps individuals or teams tell stories about the future.
Encourages multiple perspectives on one issue.
Used in workshops to generate evolving questions and scenarios.
Supports visual and narrative analysis (e.g., using Southbeach Modeller or Cognitive Edge SenseMaker).
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Tools Mentioned
Tool Use
Southbeach Modeller Visual tool for iterating Starburst questions and creating scenario diagrams.
Cognitive Edge SenseMaker Collects real-world narratives to help decision-makers see through others' perspectives and detect weak signals.
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✅ Summary line:
Starbursting and related tools help teams explore possible futures by asking structured questions, visualizing outcomes, and using collective insight for better foresight and risk assessment.
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Ways of Seeing – Techniques
Purpose
These techniques help individuals and organizations see beyond the present, spot emerging trends, and generate new ideas and questions about the future.
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Key Techniques
Technique Description
Bookmark sources Save useful websites or platforms for regular reference.
Become a newsletter junkie Subscribe to updates from diverse and credible sources.
Experience a service Personally try new services to understand trends firsthand.
Go beyond your immediate interests Explore unfamiliar fields to discover fresh insights.
Look for new inventions Track innovations that could impact the future.
Look outside your industry Observe how other sectors are evolving.
Maintain an idea log Keep a record of ideas, signals, and insights.
Network with forward thinkers Connect with people who think about the future.
Pick a time frame Define whether you're looking 5, 10, or 20 years ahead.
Revisit the past Study history for recurring patterns and lessons.
Scan the scanners Learn from other horizon scanning sources and communities.
Set up a futures panel Form a group to discuss and evaluate emerging trends.
Take a global perspective Consider international developments and cross-cultural changes.
Vary your routine Break habits to notice new possibilities.
Search patents, new books, etc. Explore where innovation and thought leadership are emerging.
Conduct a bibliographic search Review academic and professional literature for new ideas.
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✅ Summary line:
Using these techniques broadens perception, challenges assumptions, and strengthens the ability to detect weak signals and emerging trends in Horizon Scanning.
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Ways of Seeing – Principles
Core Idea:
When scanning for new ideas or trends, apply broad and balanced thinking to get a complete, reliable, and realistic view of the future.
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Key Principles
1. Explore both sides – Examine positives and negatives for a full picture.
2. Think micro & macro – Look at small details and the big picture together.
3. Use multiple lenses – Analyze the same issue from different viewpoints.
4. Triangulate information – Verify facts using several reliable sources.
5. Go beyond felt needs – Don't stop at obvious issues; explore hidden ones too.
6. Include diverse sources – Gather insights from different people and fields.
7. Balance internal & external views – Combine inside knowledge with outside perspectives.
8. Apply multiple techniques – Use varied tools like brainstorming, scanning, or analysis.
9. Assess needs vs. opportunities – Weigh challenges and available assets.
10. Think globally – Maintain a broad view without being shallow.
11. Engage action-takers – Involve people who can implement change.
12. Stay realistic – Avoid overpromising or exaggerating outcomes.
13. Be clear on criteria – Define research goals and standards early.
14. Sense-check viability – Ensure ideas make sense socially, economically, politically, and technologically.
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✅ Summary line:
Use balanced, multi-angle, and evidence-based thinking to scan effectively and create realistic, actionable insights about the future.
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Ways of Seeing – Multiple Glasses
Core Idea:
Horizon Scanning works best when done collectively, with people viewing the future through different lenses and from diverse parts of the organization.
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Key Points
1. Group Scanning:
Involve staff from across the organization.
Managers must support and allocate regular scanning time.
The biggest challenge: finding time for consistent scanning.
2. Qualities of Good Scanners:
Open-minded and curious.
Comfortable with challenges to their views.
Think creatively ("outside the box").
Share knowledge freely.
See the big picture, not just details.
3. Mindset Shift:
Move focus from short-term, urgent matters to long-term and strategic thinking.
Early sessions may feel messy before useful insights emerge.
Learn to filter noise from valuable information.
4. Scope of Scanning:
Look for insights about—
Your industry and environment.
Your services and how they may evolve.
Clients' changing expectations.
Workforce trends and staff issues.
Emerging technologies.
Shifts in what's considered "normal business."
5. Focus Areas:
Competitor actions and responses.
Industry trends and government policies.
Broader societal and global trends.
6. Importance of Global Trends:
Don't skip long-term scanning.
Global changes often shape tomorrow's local impacts.
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✅ Summary line:
Effective scanning needs diverse minds, long-term focus, and attention to global trends to uncover signals that shape future strategy.
Here's your short, clear study note for "Ways of Seeing – Taxonomies" 👇
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Ways of Seeing – Taxonomies
Core Idea:
A taxonomy is a structured classification system that organizes scanning information into key categories — helping identify valuable insights and reduce information "noise."
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Common Taxonomy Models:
STEEP: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political
PESTLE: Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental
These frameworks guide scanning across multiple perspectives.
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Main Categories (Example Taxonomy):
1. Economics:
Globalization, poverty, sustainability, trade, finance, regulation
2. Environment:
Agriculture, climate, construction, food, water, raw materials
3. Healthcare:
Disease, genetics, nutrition, treatment, wellness
4. Industries:
Energy, biotechnology, media, transport, retail, manufacturing
5. Lifestyles:
Education, families, fashion, homes, leisure, values
6. Organization:
Innovation, culture, strategy, workforce, marketing, change
7. Politics:
Government, ideologies, military, rights, security
8. Society:
Community, crime, gender, generations, demographics
9. Technology:
Computing, robotics, nanotech, AI, space, science
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Key Points:
Choose 10–15 relevant topics for focused scanning.
Use structured taxonomies to manage and compare data.
Or use unstructured "folksonomies" (like tag clouds) to spot emerging patterns.
Helps in systematic scanning and noise reduction.
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✅ Summary Line:
Taxonomies organize foresight scanning into clear themes, ensuring broad coverage and sharper insight discovery.
Here's your quick study note for "Ways of Seeing – Social Networks" 👇
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Ways of Seeing – Social Networks
Core Idea:
Social networks enhance collaborative scanning by allowing everyone to contribute insights ("scan hits") and share interpretations.
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Key Points:
Use a shared system where all members can voluntarily add scan hits.
Always thank contributors — appreciation motivates ongoing participation.
Encourage contributors to explain what they saw and why it matters (the possible future implications).
This sharing builds a community of insight and keeps the scanning process active and rich.
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✅ Summary Line:
Collaborative, appreciative sharing within social networks strengthens scanning quality and participation.
Here's your quick study note for "Recording Insights" 👇
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Recording Insights
Main Idea:
Recording insights (scanning hits) is the first step in the Foresight Process — organizing new information about possible changes or trends.
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Key Points:
Begin documenting scanning hits in a clear and consistent format.
Can be done manually or via an online database/system.
Assign 1–2 coordinators to manage and standardize all submissions.
Aim for clarity and consistency so insights are easy to understand and retrieve later.
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Each Scanning Hit Should Include:
1. Title – short, descriptive name.
2. Source & Date – where and when you found it.
3. Description – summary of what the change is about.
4. Future Implications – what it might mean for the future.
5. URL – if it came from an online source.
6. Tags/Keywords – for easy searching later (topics, project, date, etc.).
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✅ Summary Line:
Recording insights consistently ensures organized, reliable scanning data for future foresight analysis.
Here's your quick summary note for "Visualizing Insights" 👇
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Recording Insights – Visualizing Insights
Main Idea:
Visualizing insights helps turn raw scanning data into interactive, shareable, and understandable views for collaboration and analysis.
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Key Points:
Adding insights to a shared database allows you to view, sort, and analyze scan hits easily.
The collaborative system lets team members:
Add tags and comments to others' insights.
Create custom newsletters/reports.
Share insights via email or social media.
Link trends, uncertainties, and wildcards directly.
Visualization tools make data more meaningful — showing how change unfolds.
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Common Visualization Formats:
Lists / Tables – organize and compare insights.
Maps / Geographical views – show where changes occur.
Graphs / Time series – display trends over time.
Tag clouds / Concept maps – highlight key themes and relationships.
Mash-ups – combine data by geography, process, or time for deeper analysis.
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✅ Summary Line:
Visualization transforms scattered scanning data into interactive insights that reveal patterns, trends, and emerging change in real time.
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Recording Insights – S-Curve Visualization
Main Idea:
The S-curve (Sigmoid curve) helps visualize how trends emerge, grow, peak, and decline — similar to waves that build, crest, and fade.
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Key Points:
Trend watching = surfing a wave:
Early signals are small and hard to see.
Trends grow stronger (the wave builds).
Eventually, the trend peaks and fades — you must prepare for the next one.
S-curves show:
Growth phase: when a new idea or change starts gaining traction.
Maturity phase: when it becomes mainstream.
Decline phase: when interest or impact fades.
Skilled foresight analysts spot trends early, prepare in advance, and move on before the decline.
Uses of S-curves:
Visualize trend lifecycles using data from scan hits.
Identify rising issues and fading ones.
Use lagging, coincident, and leading indicators to project future shifts (ETA – Estimated Time of Arrival).
Example:
S-curve visualizations correctly predicted the 2007 recession by showing shifts in economic indicators.
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✅ Summary Line:
S-curves help visualize the life cycle of trends—revealing when to act, when to prepare, and when to move toward the next emerging wave.
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Recording Insights – Tag Clouds
Main Idea:
Tag clouds visually display keywords from scanning insights — showing which topics are most discussed or relevant.
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Key Points:
Each tag (keyword) represents a topic from user insights.
Text size = popularity:
Larger words → more scan hits or higher tagging activity.
Smaller words → fewer mentions.
Can be viewed at individual, team, or organizational levels.
Helps identify current hot topics and areas of shared interest.
Supports quick understanding of where attention and discussion are focused.
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✅ Summary Line:
Tag clouds reveal trending themes by showing which topics receive the most attention across scanning insights.
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Recording Insights – Mash-ups
Main Idea:
Mash-ups combine multiple data views into one visual tool that shows a trend or issue's impact, likelihood, and urgency.
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Key Points:
A mash-up integrates various insights and perspectives into a single dashboard or early warning system.
It helps visualize future impacts and detect emerging changes early.
Especially valuable for monitoring key organizational interests.
Provides early signals that manual research might miss until much later.
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✅ Summary Line:
Mash-ups merge multiple insights into one view, helping organizations spot early warnings and track important emerging trends efficiently.
Here's your quick summary note for "Reporting Insights" 👇
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Reporting Insights
Main Idea:
Reports share the results of scanning to inform, challenge, and engage the organization with possible future developments — not to predict them.
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Key Points:
Reports should clarify that scanning hits show possible futures, not predictions.
Purpose: to help the organization think ahead, manage complexity, and stay aware of the external environment.
Keep scanning visible and reports relevant to organizational needs.
Reports should challenge existing assumptions and stimulate curiosity.
Share reports regularly (e.g., weekly) with the planning team and wider staff.
Can be shared by email or via an interactive website (staff can rate relevance/importance).
Collecting staff feedback helps spot valuable insights and expand understanding.
The process increases awareness of industry and global trends that may affect future operations.
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✅ Summary Line:
Reporting insights is about sharing possible futures — not predictions — to broaden awareness, challenge thinking, and prepare the organization for change.
Here's a clear and concise summary note for "Scanning Strategies" 👇
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Scanning Strategies
Three Main Scanning Strategies:
1. Change-Directed Scanning
Focus: Looks for any kind of change from the normal pattern.
Used when: The background is well known.
Example: Tracking shifts or developments in a known topic area.
2. Signal-Directed Scanning
Focus: Searches for specific signals, trends, or indicators.
Used when: There's limited knowledge of the broader context or "noise."
Example: Identifying gaps or opportunities for future strategy.
3. Pattern-Directed Scanning
Focus: Detects emerging patterns or outliers from seemingly random data.
Used when: Researchers are exploring the unknown or uncertain.
Example: Recognizing early signs of disruptive change.
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Two Main Approaches to Horizon Scanning:
1. Evidence-Based Horizon Scanning (Deductive Approach)
Seeks to support known issues or questions with strong evidence.
Characteristics:
Static, periodic, and project/issue-focused.
High rigor and peer-reviewed quality.
Demands strong, credible, and authoritative sources.
Process:
Identify issues → commission research → gather and cite evidence → create and publish briefing papers.
Benefit: Builds a shared knowledge base that retains corporate memory and improves research efficiency.
2. Intelligence-Based Horizon Scanning (Inductive Approach)
Seeks to discover new issues, patterns, and emerging signals.
Characteristics:
Dynamic, continuous, and exploratory.
Focuses on early warning for threats and opportunities.
Broader audience, less formal than evidence-based scanning.
Process:
Gather intelligence → detect new patterns → research → create briefing papers → identify issues → publish.
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✅ Summary Line:
Scanning strategies help researchers detect, analyze, and interpret early signals of change — through structured evidence-based studies or dynamic intelligence-based exploration.
Here's a short, exam-ready note for "Balancing the Need for Evidence and Intelligence" 👇
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Balancing the Need for Evidence and Intelligence
A good Horizon Scanning system should combine both evidence-based and intelligence-based methods.
Scanning must be systematic, repeatable, and regularly updated to stay relevant.
Users should focus on the big picture, not just detailed data.
Trends change slowly — even major events (like 9/11) usually reflect pre-existing signals already visible in strong scanning systems.
Avoid over-perfection — after a point, improving the data adds little value; resources are better used for engagement and communication.
Balance is achieved by:
Using tiers to prioritize actions.
Doing ongoing, open-ended scanning for emerging ideas.
Conducting expert reviews and workshops to identify gaps.
Linking new findings to existing future briefings.
Use systematic mapping methods (like bibliometrics and patent mapping) to:
Ensure scans are complete and consistent.
Visually map data to find and fill gaps with new sources.
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✅ Summary Line:
A balanced Horizon Scanning process integrates structured evidence with flexible intelligence gathering, ensuring completeness without over-complication.
Here's a quick summary note for "Scanning Methods" 👇
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Scanning Methods
Purpose:
Encourage strategic thinking and serendipitous discovery — helping organizations spot future issues, opportunities, and risks early.
Automated Scanning:
Uses internet tools to track emerging changes from pre-selected sources (e.g., competitors, experts, websites, stakeholders).
Benefits:
Cuts scanning time to 1/10th of manual effort.
Reduces human error.
Lowers scanning costs significantly.
Tools used:
Bookmarking, RSS feeds, auto-linking to platforms like Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, MentionMap, Paper.li, etc.
Scanning robots help collect and organize insights automatically.
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✅ Summary Line:
Automated scanning enables faster, cheaper, and more accurate detection of emerging trends using online tools and AI-driven systems.