Chapter 159: Motives and Methods (Part 2)
"Because as 'Prince Hazan's sister,' she wants to maintain her position by my side after marrying me, she must ensure the stability of my alliance with Prince Hazan. And the biggest enemy facing this stability is Illyrio."
"That's right," Celia nodded. "After hearing from Prince Hazan about the relationship between Illyrio and the commander of the Purple Ship Fleet, I quickly guessed Illyrio's ambition based on information from the source material, and understood that he could never submit to Prince Hazan.
"At the same time, I couldn't be certain which side you would take if Magister Illyrio and Prince Hazan clashed in the future, so to be safe, I needed to make Prince Hazan your only choice."
"But what I don't understand," Celia continued, "is how you managed to investigate our initial actions in such detail?"
"I'll say it again: players aren't gods—they can't create miracles. No matter how well you're hiding now, as long as I start investigating from the very beginning, when players are most vulnerable and have the fewest resources, they have to take many risky actions to develop quickly. Investigating from that point will always reveal clues."
"And how did you find out about that traitor?" Celia pressed.
"No," Ian shook his head, "that was speculation.
"Because you lied to the other priests in the temple, saying you met a man who called himself Ginny Taymee, which happened to be around the time Ander Poole sent people to the Red Temple to investigate the death of a guest.
"You were trying to show Ander Poole the false information that Ginny Taymee was still alive and frame her for the guest's death, thus diverting Ander Poole's attention.
"But the problem is, apart from using that name on the wanted poster at the Jomah Inn, Ginny Taymee always used a different name. Why would Ander Poole be interested in the name Ginny Taymee?
"Therefore, I speculated that your fourth ally did not follow through on the agreement to ally with you, but instead joined Ander Poole's team. And the guest who died in the Red Temple was the traitor, and you were the killer.
"Although there are no further details, judging from your previous reactions, I guessed everything correctly, didn't I?"
"That's right. Ander Poole almost tracked me down," Celia nodded in acknowledgment. "I had to distract him, since it was a crucial moment when I was trying to connect Prince Hazan with you.
"If I had Hazan's men eliminate Ander Poole, you would suspect that Prince Hazan had a player by his side. That would be disastrous for my grand plan."
"Well, thank you for your consideration," Ian said with a smirk.
"Alright, now that you've cleared up my doubts, let me tell you about Prince Hazan's plan. I wager you won't guess it this time."
"No, I think I've already figured out eight or nine tenths of Hazan's plan." Ian interrupted Celia with a smile.
"How is that possible? Are you jesting with me?" Celia exclaimed, bewildered. She had thought it was her turn to impress him, as she was quite confident in the ingenuity of her entire scheme.
But this man was telling her that he had already guessed most of it?
"Prince Hazan's ally is House Tetrus—no, to be precise, it's Magister Groiro Tetrus himself," Ian stated directly.
"You?" Celia jumped up. "Your greenseer skill isn't advanced, it's legendary, isn't it? Or are you just admitting you've become the Three-Eyed Raven?"
"For a true detective, if someone points to one aspect of a fact, he can not only deduce all aspects of that fact, but also all the consequences that will result," Ian quoted again. "After I determined the identity and purpose of the player behind Hazan, the entire sequence of events was, in fact, completely laid out before me."
"The next puzzle I needed to solve," Ian continued, "was how you persuaded Hazan, and the methods Hazan plans to use against Illyrio.
"Hazan needs to solve two problems to kill Illyrio: how to do it and how to cover his tracks afterward.
"A successful assassination would be perfect—after all, if there's no evidence that he sent the assassin, he doesn't even need to cover his tracks.
"But I've been with Magister Illyrio for almost two months, and I know his level of personal security very well. I can say that, apart from sending a Faceless Man, I can't think of anyone who could successfully assassinate him.
"But the Faceless Men never guarantee a timeframe for completing a contract. Just like Jaqen H'ghar..." When Arya suggested killing Tywin Lannister or Cersei, Jaqen told her it might take a year or more.
"The Faceless Men's strength lies in disguise, not sheer force. Given patience and time, they can indeed kill anyone once they've accepted a contract. But to kill Illyrio in such a short time? I don't think even they could manage it.
"Illyrio started as a sellsword and thief. When he and Varys first rose to power, all the bravos and cutthroats of Pentos wanted them dead, yet none succeeded. Illyrio possesses extremely rich experience dealing with assassins—that's his area of expertise.
"Therefore, regarding Hazan's methods of attack, I favor a direct assault.
"Ambushes and sneak attacks are my second option, but they're too difficult to execute. Illyrio's spies are everywhere in Pentos. Any troop movement by Hazan within the city would be detected by Illyrio's informants, thus alerting him.
"Moreover, even if a sneak attack succeeded, he wouldn't be able to handle the aftermath. After all, Hazan is already irreconcilably opposed to the Valentis faction. If he were to also launch a sneak attack on Illyrio, he would face a three-pronged assault from Illyrio's allies, the Valentis faction, and old Magister Rotalus, who is defending order in Pentos.
"Therefore, after ruling out ambushes and sneak attacks along with this possibility, I also concluded that Hazan needed to ensure two things to kill Illyrio.
"First, he needed to ensure Illyrio wouldn't discover his troop movements—which was impossible—so he at least needed to guarantee Illyrio wouldn't grow suspicious.
"Second, for a proper cover-up, he needed allies powerful enough to help him win the upcoming civil war—and currently, only two people in Pentos met this condition: his arch-enemy, Magister Groiro Tetrus of the Valentis Party, and the defender of Pentos's order and tradition, old Magister Percy Rotalus, commander of the Pentos City Guard."
"Theoretically, neither of them could help him," Celia unusually chimed in.
"That's exactly the effect he wanted," Ian said with a smile and a shake of his head. "Because this way, he'll achieve his first goal: to prevent Illyrio from suspecting his troop movements.
"Thinking about that, my initial suspicion—that the source material didn't describe any impending Pentos civil war—resurfaced in my mind.
"At the same time, the tournament tomorrow, which also wasn't described in the source material but is nearly upon us, also came to mind."
(End of Chapter)
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