Vytautas, in Manuel I's timeline, was the undisputed and only 'Great' of Lithuania. His death would cause the biggest political earthquake in Eastern Europe in decades.
The tremor began in Lithuania. After Vytautas's death, under pressure from Poland and in accordance with Vytautas's will, Lithuania was forced to honor the agreement made between the two nations during Vytautas's lifetime. The very next day, a council was convened to elect a new king. The final result of the council was no surprise: King Sigismund, the younger brother of Polish King Jogaila and cousin of the former Lithuanian King Vytautas, Švitrigaila, was elected King of Lithuania with an absolute majority.
This result brought joy to the Polish faction in Lithuania, but the local and Ruthenian factions in Lithuania found it unacceptable. Led by King Sigismund, Vytautas's brother and the current Grand Duke of Ruthenia, they first assembled a large army in Minsk and ordered Švitrigaila to surrender the throne. How could the other party accept such an unreasonable demand? "Scoundrels! I spent decades of effort, fighting that old immortal Vytautas my whole life, and finally I've worn the crown. These pigs actually want me to give it up? Am I the King, or are they the King?!" Švitrigaila roared, then immediately sent a messenger, demanding that King Sigismund submit to him.
Facing Švitrigaila's demands, King Sigismund, who had already left Vilnius for Pinsk on the same day Vytautas died, didn't even look at the letter. He threw the surrender letter directly into the fire in front of the messenger, "Meaningless trash. This is how I treat trash." He looked at the embarrassed messenger before him, a mocking smile on his face.
With that, negotiations between the two sides completely broke down, and by early April, the Lithuanian Civil War erupted. Current Lithuanian King Švitrigaila was backed by Lithuania's Polish faction and the secret support of his brother, Polish King Jogaila; while claimant King Sigismund was backed by Lithuania's local and Ruthenian factions, as well as his great-nephew, Grand Duke Vasily II of Moscow.
It is important to note here that the Lithuanian expeditionary force previously dispatched to support Haji Giray belonged to the Ruthenian faction. To cope with this civil war, King Sigismund naturally recalled them from the Crimea region.
The news reached Theodoro around midday in mid-April. Manuel, who had just finished with his wife in the Theodosia palace, first sighed after learning the details: "After the death of a 'Great' ruler, how did all of Lithuania become like this? But he died at just the right time." But soon, he was so excited that he immediately opened a bottle of fine wine brought from Champagne, France. "Good wine, from now on I'll call you Champagne, after its name in my previous life." Manuel mused to himself in his room, then showed a sinister smile, "I can finally say this—"
"Good riddance! Time for champagne! The old geezer should have dropped his loot ages ago!"
With that, he happily drank the champagne in his glass in one gulp, nearly spilling the wine from the bottle onto the table.
Shortly after finishing the champagne, Manuel received a summons from his father, asking him to go to Mangup to discuss important matters with him.
Once he arrived at Mangup and the high-ranking officials of the Principality had gathered, they immediately began to analyze the current situation:
Although the Lithuanian expeditionary army had withdrawn back home, and the Crimean Khanate was forced to go on the defensive, Crimea's momentum had not diminished at all. Several battles with the Golden Horde army ended in their victory. If the Golden Horde lost a few more major battles, it would be unclear who would win or lose.
"When did Haji Giray's army become so capable?" Manuel frowned in thought. According to the knowledge he had from his previous life, the military strength of the Crimean Khanate was still relatively weak at this time. They shouldn't have won so many battles against the Golden Horde?
"Did they invite other foreign aid again?" Manuel became vigilant.
As he was pondering, the next matter mentioned gave him a bold idea.
According to intelligence, the Crimean Khanate was not a monolithic entity internally. Many Tatar nobles genuinely did not want direct conflict with the Golden Horde, and the Golden Horde Khan had seized on this point, enticing these Tatar nobles to side with him. If Haji Giray had not been victorious repeatedly, they would likely have defected long ago.
"In that case, it seems like a good opportunity to expand the operations of the Shadow Division," Manuel keenly perceived this opportunity.
After their discussion, led by the Prince and his son, most agreed to join the Golden Horde's side in the war. "If our predictions are correct, the Golden Horde Khan's prestige within the Khanate must have significantly declined due to his repeated defeats. At this point, as long as there is foreign aid, even if it's just a meat shield, willing to help him, he won't refuse. What we need to do is figure out how to convince him on paper to cede Northern Crimea to us," Alexius concluded.
"Then, let Crown Prince go to Sarai again and persuade the Golden Horde Khan," Raus, the Principality's secretary, suggested, looking at Manuel with a meaningful gaze.
Manuel also had this intention, and just as he was about to accept the task, Alexius instead said, "No, Manuel, it would be better for you to stay in Theodoro during this time to discuss military affairs. You, Raus, will serve as the envoy to the Golden Horde this time."
"Yes, Your Majesty," Raus accepted the order and bowed deeply, hiding his face.
"Father, why won't you let me go to Sarai myself?" After the Principality's royal council ended, Manuel stayed behind alone and asked Alexius, puzzled.
"It seems someone wants to target you. It could be the Tatars of Crimea, or it could be opposition forces within the Principality. Manuel, within the Principality, my position can ensure your safety, but outside, it's not certain," Alexius said very seriously.
"Then, who exactly is it?" Manuel asked with concern.
"It's unclear. It could be some small group, or it could be people who have received ducats from foreign powers. In any case, they are very well hidden," Alexius said with worry.
Manuel thought back carefully, "Could it be those few impoverished fellows who previously had private contact with my brother? I think I secretly drove them out of Mangup to the countryside in various ways. Hmm, it wouldn't be a self-inflicted blunder, would it?" He began to consider whether to ask the Shadow Division to be more discreet in their operations.
By early May, after Raus returned from Sarai with an envoy from the Golden Horde, the envoy from Sarai stated that Golden Horde Khan Said Ahmad had promised to grant the Principality of Theodoro Northern Crimea in exchange for its participation in the war, but on the condition that "if your nation wishes to take the Crimean Peninsula, you must seize it yourselves. If your nation is unable to take it by the end of the war, then the border will be set according to the territory of the Crimean Khanate when it seceded from the Golden Horde."
After hearing this, Manuel felt the time was right and secretly encouraged his father, "This is enough. Officially declare war, Father."
Alexius also had this intention. After confirming that there were no dissenting voices among the key officials, he formally and solemnly said to the envoy from Sarai:
"Good, then here, I declare that the Principality of Theodoro will fulfill its obligations as a vassal of the Golden Horde, join our suzerain's side, and officially declare war on the rebellious traitors of the Crimean Khanate."