Finally, after a short discussion, Theodoro decided to set the official wedding date for Manuel and Barbara in 1430.
"Now it depends on Constantinople's attitude." After what could be considered the resolution of this lifelong event, Manuel learned from the Dark Department about the potential contact between Haji Giray and Lithuania.
"This shouldn't be happening. The losses weren't small, so why is Vytautas still determined to support Haji Giray?" Manuel muttered to himself in confusion. "It seems I need to go to Lithuania myself. I want to see what's really going on." After making up his mind, he first arranged the affairs of Theodosia, and then proposed to his father the suggestion of resisting the Tatars from the north. A few days later, roughly in early August, he officially arrived at Mangup and requested Alexius to travel to Lithuania:
"Yes, I need to confirm the true attitude of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, especially their Grand Duke Vytautas, towards Haji Giray," Manuel stated resolutely to his father, Alexius.
Alexius pondered for a moment, then nodded in silent agreement, but asked curiously, "Manuel, what do you think Lithuania's view is on us and Haji Giray?"
Manuel smiled helplessly, "How should I know? But I guess all of us in Theodoro combined probably don't compare to one Haji Giray in the Grand Duke Vytautas's mind. He personally received Vytautas's protection back then, and his current comeback in Crimea is also due to the other party's strong assistance. We merely temporarily clung to Lithuania's leg before our conflict with Genoa; how can we compare to a Tatar force he personally supported?"
Speaking of this, Manuel recalled that in his previous timeline, after Haji Giray's death, the Crimean Khanate he founded quickly sided with the Ottoman, and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, which had once nurtured the Khanate like a father, was in turn brutally attacked and plundered by the Crimean Khanate, which was protected by the Ottoman. Thinking of such an ironic fact, he almost lost his composure on the spot and nearly burst out laughing.
Alexius quickly noticed Manuel's slightly upturned lips and suppressed laughter, and couldn't help but ask in confusion, "My child, what are you laughing at?"
"Nothing, Father, just remembered something happy."
"?"
What was his son thinking? Alexius was a little curious, but found it difficult to ask him, so he had to put aside his curiosity and continue discussing northern affairs.
"Manuel, why are you so fixated on the Tatars to the north? They have just occupied the Crimea region, and it will be a long time before they establish a firm foothold. This time is enough for us to prepare. Moreover, I don't believe the Grand Duchy of Lithuania can support Haji Giray so unconditionally. Their relationship will eventually be driven by self-interest. And a newly emerging Tatar regime, even if its ruler is willing to temporarily submit, his subordinates may not be willing. Wouldn't it be better for us to act then?"
"Father, your idea is too idealistic," Manuel said with a bitter smile. "What our Principality needs is living space, and securing living space is an urgent matter that cannot be delayed. Although our current territory has expanded a lot compared to before, in reality, apart from those few barren and fragile mountains, there are no barriers or buffers. If a large-scale war breaks out, we simply cannot withstand the enemy's assault."
"But we can use diplomacy, negotiation, and mediation. You know, we Romans are very good at such things…"
"Father, important contemporary issues cannot be resolved through diplomatic negotiations and a majority of unclear resolutions, but must be resolved through iron and blood!" Manuel made his definitive judgment and repeated to Alexius a statement similar to what he had said earlier in Theodosia to his generals, emphasizing repeatedly at the end: "We are too weak and can only fight for our living space to gain a precarious existence. To defend our current precarious existence, we must fight. Without fighting, there is no survival!"
Alexius was finally persuaded by Manuel and agreed to the Principality's military action against Haji Giray in the north. But he warned Manuel with some concern, "My child, if we fail, those minor nobles will be dissatisfied."
"It's alright, Father, we don't fight unprepared battles," Manuel patted his chest, assuring his father.
A few days after their discussion on northern affairs, Manuel immediately prepared to set off for Lithuania. He wanted to go to Vilnius, or Kiev, or Polotsk, anywhere, as long as he could personally meet Vytautas and learn his true opinion on the forces in the Crimea region.
Before his departure, Manuel called his chief attendant, Badars, and specifically instructed him, "Badars, keep an eye on the restless elements in the Principality for me. I don't like it when I'm fighting for the future, and someone is gossiping wildly behind my back."
"Yes, Your Highness. Rest assured, the Dark Department will take care of everything for you."
"Very good, then—"
"Loyalty!" Badars said solemnly, standing at attention.
Seeing this, Manuel finally felt at ease and confidently led his delegation to the Grand Duchy of Lithuania.
Although in modern times, a quick trip from the Crimean Peninsula to Lithuania would only take a single day. In the late Middle Ages, however, due to the primitive transportation of the time, a round trip from Mangup to Vilnius would take several months. Even if Manuel chose the fastest carriage and waterways to ascertain the other party's attitude as soon as possible, it would still take at least two months.
Since the journey would take a considerable amount of time, it is worth describing on this journey how powerful Grand Duke Vytautas and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania under his rule were in the early 15th century.
Vytautas was born as the heir to Lithuania, and his cousin was Jogaila, the current ruler of the Kingdom of Poland, also known as Władysław II Jogaila. Through the "Union of Krewo" in 1385 and the "Union of Horodło" in 1413, the two of them became regents, or co-rulers, of each other's countries.
Although the union of the two made their relationship quite close, this union also brought the disadvantage of Polish influence in Lithuanian affairs. Before these unions, Lithuania was actually more influenced by Rus' culture. For example, another important title of Vytautas was the Grand Duke of Ruthenia. Therefore, in another timeline, some historians believe that the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, before its formal union with Poland, was actually a Ruthenian state with a Baltic facade.
In any case, it must be emphasized that under Vytautas's rule, Lithuania was an undeniable hegemon in Eastern Europe. Although by 1429, Vytautas was already 79 years old, whether it was the crumbling Golden Horde, or the Grand Duchy of Moscow ruled by his grandson Vasily II, or the Kingdom of Poland, which was a de facto brotherly nation, any major move they made in Eastern Europe had to be approved by this old man. The Principality of Theodoro was no exception.