Cao Haichuan took out his cigarette case again, and once more realized he couldn't smoke.
He was a bit agitated, so he simply stood up, walked to the large screen, and pointed at the relevant information on it to continue his explanation.
"We've analyzed this before, the initial state of the iron block mechanism was a certain distance from his head.
"Wei Xinjian actually had a two-shot margin of error. Even if he chose to shoot the innocent person for these two shots, it wouldn't have caused him any harm.
"In other words, this initial design of the mechanism created a false sense of security for him.
"Compared to the iron block that hadn't yet clamped his head, the pistol with a 1/6 chance of a fatal shot was clearly more terrifying.
"This was the first shot, he wasn't fully mentally prepared to 'shoot himself'.
"'What if the first shot is a live round? A 1/6 probability isn't low.' Driven by this thought, he would most likely choose to shoot the innocent person for the first shot.
"Conversely, if the iron block had been pressed against his head from the very beginning, he might have made a more rational choice for that first shot."
Everyone nodded in agreement, this was indeed a detail they hadn't considered before.
Jiang He asked with some curiosity, "Then what about the second and third shots?
"He should have been more or less mentally prepared to shoot himself by then, right?
"Besides, he showed clear hesitation during the second shot."
The programmer, Cai Zhiyuan, spoke up, "Officer Cao, I think I understand, let me explain this part.
"Actually, it's still a matter of probability.
"Because the probability of getting a live round on the first shot is 1/6, while on the second shot it's 1/5, and so on.
"If the previous shot was a blank, then the probability of getting a live round on each subsequent shot is higher than the one before.
"So, once he chose not to shoot himself on the first shot, he would fall into a state of regret, like a sunk cost, which would further affect his judgment.
"It also made him more hesitant with each subsequent shot.
"When he aimed at himself for the second shot, driven by the 'sunk cost', he would have many other thoughts, like, the chance of a live round is higher this time than the last, what if the game's designer deliberately put the bullet in the second position?
"From a rational standpoint, his worries are baseless and don't help in assessing the situation at all.
"But in a life-or-death decision with a 5-minute countdown, it's hard for a person to remain rational, and these minor pieces of misinformation can easily interfere with his thinking, making him hope for a lucky break.
"Because if he shoots the innocent person again on the next shot, even if it's a blank, he still won't be harmed.
"The same logic applies to the third shot, the sunk cost and the changing probabilities would further influence his decision.
"By the time the first three shots were actually fired, Wei Xinjian's head was squeezed by the iron block, and he was plunged into immense regret, but by then, it was obviously too late."
Cao Haichuan nodded in approval, "Exactly, that's it.
"You explained the specific probabilities, which is a bit clearer than my original thought.
"But overall, our views are consistent."
But then, Cai Zhiyuan became confused again.
"But, even if we don't consider the first three shots and only look at the last three, as long as he knew the answer to the Monty Hall problem, he should have been able to survive.
"If he shot himself for the fourth and fifth shots, and the innocent person for the sixth, his head would at most be squeezed by the mechanism one more time, he still wouldn't necessarily die."
Cao Haichuan shook his head slightly, "First, Wei Xinjian might not have known about the Monty Hall problem.
"He might not have understood the changing probabilities at all, and the increased chance of a live round on the fourth shot made him even more afraid to shoot himself.
"Second, the message that 'the fifth shot is a blank' was not some mercy from the designer, but precisely the opposite, a death warrant."
Cai Zhiyuan was even more puzzled, "What do you mean?"
Cao Haichuan pointed to the information on the screen:
"Wei Xinjian hesitated on the fourth shot.
"Why did he hesitate at this moment? I believe it's a completely different situation from the second shot.
"It's not a probability issue.
"It's that Wei Xinjian had developed suicidal thoughts."
Everyone was a bit surprised, "Suicidal?"
Cao Haichuan nodded, "That's right, because at this point, the iron block mechanism had already squeezed inward once.
"With a fractured skull and increased intracranial pressure, Wei Xinjian was actually in a state of extreme pain.
"The pain of the iron block's compression surpassed the 1/3 threat of being shot, he might have developed a desire for death to end this suffering quickly.
"And here's the most interesting part:
"If he had actually done that, he wouldn't have died.
"But this was clearly not what the game's designer wanted to see."
Everyone had a sudden realization.
Under that intense pain, if Wei Xinjian, on an impulse, had fired at himself three times in a row, wouldn't he have survived?
In that case, his survival wouldn't be due to repentance or mercy, but due to the despair and irrationality of wanting to commit suicide.
This trial would have lost its meaning.
Cao Haichuan paused for a moment, then continued, "So, the game's designer deliberately inserted a hint here to reawaken his will to live.
"This ensured the accuracy of this 'trial'.
"Wei Xinjian originally needed to gamble on two bullets to find the live round's position, but now he only needed to gamble on one. In other words, the iron block would move inward at most one more time.
"At this point, he actually had two choices:
"One was to shoot himself directly, with a 1/3 chance of dying; the other was to shoot the innocent person, with a 2/3 chance that the iron block would move inward another 1.29cm.
"A 1.29cm compression would be very painful, but not immediately fatal.
"With the fifth and sixth bullets' status confirmed, the second choice clearly had a higher survival rate."
Cai Zhiyuan now fully understood, and he added:
"So after his will to live was reawakened, he ultimately chose to shoot the innocent person.
"But the game's designer had set a trap here.
"There was no live round in the gun at all, which means Wei Xinjian completely misjudged the final shot: with no live round, the iron block mechanism would still continue to move.
"Wei Xinjian thought he could escape by killing the innocent person with the last shot, but in reality, he was sealing his own death."
Everyone present fell silent, they needed some time to digest this information.
Li Renshu felt a chill run down her spine, "So, this game is actually a series of interlocking traps, from the moment Wei Xinjian decided to shoot the innocent person with the first shot, he was already on a path of no return.
"And his final thought of killing the innocent person to save himself became his death sentence.
"This is a highly selective game.
"A rational person, a selfless person, a compassionate person, any one of these types would have had a very high survival rate.
"That's why it's called 'Redemption Roulette'.
"It looks like a game of roulette that depends on luck, but in reality, it's a trial, a test.
"If Wei Xinjian could have changed his perspective in this desperate situation, cherished the life of the innocent person, even just by shooting himself once, he could have survived, and his soul could have been redeemed.
"But it's a pity... he never repented, even in death."
The crowd once again fell into a long silence.
It was clear that after the rapid processing in their brains, a dual fatigue of body and mind began to surface.
At the same time, the death in the game made them feel a severe lack of security.
The combination of these two factors made most of them lose the desire to speak further.
Fu Chen keenly noticed this, "Let's call it a day then, I think everyone can go get some rest.
"Although I don't know what kind of place this 'New World' is, I'm the type of person who takes things as they come, and I hope everyone else is too.
"In any case, we are in a community, with different professions and identities, we can complement each other in terms of division of labor, no matter what problems we encounter, we can stick together."
Everyone stood up and returned to their own rooms.