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July 5, 2035, NASA Headquarters, Washington D.C., United States
The conference room brimmed with a heavy silence, as if submerged in the crushing depths of a dark ocean. Earlier, heated debates had flared among attendees, but now a tense calm prevailed—at least on the surface.
A young NASA staffer burst through the door, hurrying to the NASA Administrator's seat. Whispering urgently, he handed a single sheet of paper to Administrator Andrew Black. Black's expression darkened as he skimmed the document, his frown lingering even after the staffer left.
"New information," Black announced, scanning the room's attendees and the monitors displaying remote participants. "The Russian Slava and Chinese Shenzhou, previously untrackable, have been confirmed destroyed, optically verified last night, near-simultaneously with the ISS. This rules out Russian or Chinese attacks, doesn't it?"
"It's not conclusive," a voice countered. "The simultaneous destruction of the ISS and their military satellites doesn't identify the attacker. We can't rule them out."
"Russia and China attacking each other's satellites, collapsing together, and hitting the ISS? That's plausible," another added.
"What's the point?" a third interjected. "The ISS is a global project. Attacking it turns every partner nation against them, plus international opinion. Even they aren't that reckless."
"A century ago, a nation started a war against the world," someone muttered. "They don't care about enemies."
As arguments reignited, a commanding voice cut through. "Gentlemen."
Silence fell. All eyes turned to Godfrey Wolverton, Chief of Staff to the President, his deep, resonant tone filling the room via a slightly distorted webcam feed.
"The ISS was destroyed at 10 p.m. Eastern Time, right above us. From North to South America, witnesses saw the flash. Amateur astronomers likely caught it up close through telescopes. This morning, newspapers splashed it across front pages, and video sites are flooded with clips of the ISS's final moments. NASA's front desk is swamped with calls, staff repeating, 'We've lost contact, details unclear,' without even a bathroom break. Lindsey, any luck finding amateur astronomers who zoomed in on the explosion?"
Lindsey, Director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, appeared on a monitor. "Not yet. Our team's reaching out to ISS enthusiasts, but no solid leads."
"Keep at it," Godfrey urged. "If we can capture the impact moment, it's a major clue. Billy, what about Slava and Shenzhou logs?"
"About 70% collected," Billy replied. "Key data's still missing. Eastern hemisphere facilities are slow to respond."
"Keep pushing. Those logs could reveal if they caused this or were victims themselves."
"Space Force conspiracy theories are already circulating," the Air Force Chief of Staff quipped, prompting a scowl from the Space Force Chief. A subtle rivalry lingered between the branches, the Air Force still smarting over "losing the skies."
"Gossip rags don't matter," Godfrey said firmly. "Major outlets are sticking to facts. NASA's front desk is bearing the brunt, but hold the line."
Black nodded deeply at Godfrey's monitor. "Let's hear from the CIA. You said preliminary analysis would be ready by 0900."
A woman at the table's edge, her presence almost invisible, stirred. Brushing dark brown bangs behind her glasses, she addressed Godfrey's monitor. "Will the President join us?"
Malvina Harcourt, CIA Director, was an unconventional choice, plucked from a private think tank.
"I'm afraid the President is over the Atlantic," Godfrey replied. "He's resting after EU summit talks, preparing for the workload ahead. Discussing this via secure aircraft comms isn't ideal for security. I'll brief him with a summary later and ensure his presence for the final phase."
"Understood," Malvina said. "CIA's analysis, using AI 'ALLICOT VI,' yields: 12% chance of Chinese attack, 6% Russian, 5% other actors like Islamic groups."
"Low probabilities," Black noted, arms crossed. "Yet three space stations accidentally destroyed on the same day is even less likely, right?"
"Near zero," Malvina confirmed.
She paused, then continued. "China's motive: expanding hegemony, possibly using aggressive space tactics. But economic struggles and rising nationalism make them wary of actions inviting global sanctions, which could collapse their economy and state. Attacking the ISS would provoke massive backlash from partner nations, UN resolutions, and sanctions from Western countries. The CCP leadership likely understands this, though rogue military factions could act recklessly."
No objections arose. The room's experts knew these details; the CIA's role was synthesizing them.
"Russia," Malvina went on. "A space race veteran with top-tier technology and presence. Since the 1972 Soyuz-Apollo Test Project, they've avoided overt military conflict in space. Attacking the ISS, given its international makeup, would spark backlash, especially from Europe, making it highly unlikely."
She surveyed the room before continuing. "Islamic groups or hostile states lack the means to attack orbital targets. They don't have the tech or reason to buy anti-satellite weapons from Russia or China to use against their assets."
"All negative conclusions?" Black pressed.
"Yes."
"Then we're nowhere," another voice grumbled. "You've said nothing."
"Is the AI's input data flawed?" someone asked. "Relying on programs gives half-baked results. We want your analysis, not a printout."
The criticism stung. Malvina herself wasn't satisfied with the results. Pressed for speed, the AI's output diverged wildly from expectations, leaving no time to refine a convincing report. She'd cherry-picked safer conclusions to avoid ridicule.
"The results are valid," Black interjected. "Use the CIA's findings as a guide and pursue your own investigations. Thank you for attending despite busy schedules. We'll reconvene as needed. Meeting adjourned."
Godfrey disconnected, and Malvina exhaled quietly, unnoticed. She had to connect with Langley immediately to dissect the AI's output. Rushed into the meeting, she'd had no time to review it properly. Even ALLICOT VI, trusted within the CIA, had produced baffling results this time.
Gathering her papers, she closed her laptop and stood, wondering if a private room was free for her team to discuss.
July 5, 2035, Post-Meeting
Godfrey shifted his gaze from the darkened meeting window to ALLICOT VI's output on his screen. As Chief of Staff, he had direct access to the AI's results.
Tapping his desk rhythmically, he studied the data. He'd noticed Malvina omitted parts of the output during the meeting and understood why.
The screen displayed ALLICOT's most likely conclusion for the simultaneous destruction of the ISS, Slava, and Shenzhou:
"Extraterrestrial attack probability: 47.3%"
"Likelihood of continued or escalated attacks: 89.7%"
Godfrey stared at the black window's white text, then put his terminal to sleep and stood.