Chapter 96: Goal Achieved, It's Happening
Upon hearing Lin Haoran's question, Bao Yugang paused for a moment before replying, "An oil crisis?
To be honest, I'm not certain either. After all, the Pahlavi dynasty's oil supply is still operating normally, and global oil prices are relatively stable for now.
Besides, with American support, it's hard to imagine the revolutionary forces successfully overthrowing the Shah.
So in my opinion, the likelihood of an oil crisis happening is quite low."
This was the general consensus at the time —
Most people believed that with the mighty United States backing the Shah, his regime couldn't possibly collapse.
But what many didn't know was that America, while publicly backing the Pahlavi dynasty to counter Soviet influence, was secretly supporting efforts to overthrow it.
The Shah's policies of driving oil prices higher had inflicted significant economic pain on the U.S. — they wanted him gone.
Lin Haoran knew all this from the memories of his past life.
But in this era, such secret maneuvers by the U.S. government were not publicly known — they remained hidden, known only to a select few.
This was exactly what Lin Haoran urgently wanted to explore.
"Uncle Bao," Lin Haoran continued seriously,
"Suppose, hypothetically, the Pahlavi dynasty were overthrown, triggering a crisis similar to 1973 — oil prices soaring several times higher.
If I have a considerable amount of capital ready, how can I position myself in advance to profit from the crisis?
Time is tight, and I can't physically stockpile crude oil.
What would you suggest?"
Bao Yugang smiled slightly and said,
"There's always a way — and it's actually not that complicated.
Since there are many oil-producing countries, you can select a reliable one, pay them in advance for crude oil without taking delivery immediately, and have them store it temporarily.
Once the oil crisis hits and prices skyrocket, you can resell that oil to petrochemical companies that desperately need it.
That way, you'll achieve your goal."
He then added,
"However, Haoran, you must be cautious.
This approach sounds tempting, but the risks are substantial.
Are you really sure there will be another oil crisis?
Personally, I think the probability is quite low.
If the crisis doesn't materialize, you won't lose everything, but you'll suffer from holding costs and discounted resale prices.
Plus, you're not running a petrochemical company — holding onto crude oil long-term offers you no practical benefit."
In Bao Yugang's view, the chances of another oil crisis were slim.
As an elder, he felt a responsibility to guide and caution this promising young man.
In several enjoyable conversations, Bao had developed a genuine fondness for Lin Haoran, and he sincerely wished him success.
After all, for Chinese entrepreneurs in Hong Kong, rising against the dominant British financial powers required many more brilliant young leaders.
Lin Haoran listened to Bao's well-meant advice with a warm smile.
In his heart, he appreciated it — but he wasn't worried.
He knew with certainty that the Second Oil Crisis was inevitable.
It was a historical event that no individual could alter.
Thus, he was thankful for Bao's caution but remained firm in his own judgment.
Bao's suggestion, from Lin Haoran's perspective, was brilliant.
Prepaying for crude oil and storing it through trustworthy oil producers was essentially a non-traditional crude oil futures contract —
directly dealing with the suppliers, bypassing the complexities and uncertainties of a formal futures market.
However, selecting the right partner country became a critical issue.
This decision could determine the success or failure of the entire plan.
Thus, Lin Haoran humbly sought further advice:
"Uncle Bao, I understand the risks and I am prepared to bear them.
If you had to choose a country for this transaction, which would you recommend?"
Bao Yugang realized that Lin Haoran had made up his mind.
He didn't try to stop him any further — respecting his choice.
After all, every true entrepreneur had to learn through experience —
sometimes even through failure.
A smooth journey was a rarity in the business world.
Even the greatest tycoons had been shaped by setbacks.
Speaking with the wisdom of experience, Bao advised warmly:
"Haoran, choosing a trading partner is like choosing a close friend —
credibility, strength, and stability are the key factors.
My World-Wide Shipping Group has extensive dealings with many Middle Eastern countries, especially Saudi Arabia.
As a key shipping partner for many oil-producing nations, I know that market well.
If you're serious about this,
I highly recommend Saudi Arabia.
They have enormous oil reserves, impeccable trading reputations, and honor their agreements — big or small."
He added,
"Moreover, I have excellent relations with Saudi Aramco.
If you wish, I can help make the introductions."
Lin Haoran's eyes lit up with excitement.
Secretly, he marveled at how wise it was to have visited Bao Yugang tonight.
Sure, he would owe Bao a favor — but he didn't mind.
In the business world, mutual favors were standard practice.
As long as his enterprise grew stronger, deepening ties with the Bao family would be the best form of repayment.
Right now, in the early phase of building his empire, capital was his most urgent need.
Every opportunity had to be seized.
"In that case, Uncle Bao, I'll trouble you to help connect me with Saudi Aramco," Lin Haoran said sincerely.
At times like this, having powerful connections was priceless.
"Not a problem.
I'll call Saudi Aramco's representative now.
But Haoran, how much crude oil are you planning to purchase?" Bao asked with a smile.
"About HK$200–300 million worth," Lin Haoran replied after a brief thought.
He had around HK$63 million in liquid funds —
Not bad, but far from enough for an ambitious oil play.
Thus, he was already calculating how to leverage loans to cover the gap.
Given his massive shareholding in Qingzhou Cement and his position as Chairman,
he was confident banks and financial institutions would line up to lend him money.
"You just acquired Qingzhou Cement and you can still move HK$200–300 million?"
Bao said, his voice tinged with disbelief.
He couldn't help but admire Lin Haoran's financial prowess.
Still, out of respect, he didn't pry into the details.
Two to three hundred million Hong Kong dollars —
that was no small feat.
Lin Haoran simply smiled and said,
"Uncle Bao, capital is the lifeblood of business.
Without it, I could never have succeeded in acquiring Qingzhou Cement."
Bao Yugang nodded approvingly.
"Alright.
I'll contact Saudi Aramco for you immediately.
I'll let you know as soon as there's progress."
As the night deepened, their conversation drew to a close.
Before leaving, Lin Haoran, feeling grateful for Bao's help, offered him a suggestion:
"Uncle Bao, if you're interested in boosting your returns,
this oil investment opportunity is really too good to miss.
Although there's some risk, the potential rewards are extraordinary.
Even if the crisis doesn't materialize, losses would be manageable.
But if it does happen, profits could multiply many times over."
However, Bao Yugang politely declined:
"Haoran, thank you for the suggestion.
But right now, all my available capital is tied up in the Wharf Holdings battle.
I don't have spare funds to take such a risk.
Still, I appreciate your thinking and your concern."
Clearly, Bao had no interest in taking part in the oil bet —
at least for now.
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