Chapter 260: Divergent Speculations
While the Italian government was fervently discussing how to achieve the final stage of unification, Pope Pius IX in Rome could find no joy in any of it.
Although Austria-Hungary had promised to guarantee the Papal States' safety and provide defensive support, the question remained: Where were the Austrian troops? You couldn't possibly just stand on the far side of the Adriatic Sea and make loud threats at Italy!
Even though the Adriatic Sea is not especially wide, and Austria-Hungary's navy is hardly weak, the Austro-Hungarian Navy couldn't simply land and fight the Italian army on shore.
After the Battle of Lissa, the Royal Italian Navy became something of a laughingstock, and its budget was sharply reduced. Historically, Italy didn't begin investing in its navy again until 1877, so this period marks one of the Italian Navy's weakest moments. Still, the Papal States happened to be surrounded by Italy's territory. In theory, the Papal States could send their meager forces eastward, recapturing the former eastern coastal lands that once belonged to them and thereby provide a landing point for Austria-Hungary's "imperial forces."
But upon reflecting on the Papal States' actual strength, Pope Pius IX dismissed that as a foolish fantasy. After the last war, much of the Papal States' eastern territory had been annexed by the Kingdom of Italy—two-thirds of its area, in fact. Forget opposing the entire Kingdom of Italy; even the portion that Italy took from the Papal States in the east is enough to give the Papal States a thrashing.
The main force of the Papal States' army—commonly called the Zouaves—was composed primarily of young, unmarried Catholic men under the command of a Swiss colonel issuing orders in French. By 1868, this Zouave force numbered 4,592, of whom more than 1,900 were Dutch and over 1,300 were French; the rest hailed from other neighboring countries (including Austrians) and even some from South and North America. There was once even a man from Qing China who joined. Such an army, even more convoluted than Austria-Hungary's internal situation, would be anyone's guess how it might function in the field.
Besides that, a Palatine Guard—set up by Pope Pius IX to patrol the city of Rome—was made up only of volunteers. They received no actual pay, just allowances for uniform upkeep and ceremonial gear, and they were extremely small in number.
Previously, the presence of about 4,000 French troops in the Papal States, co-defending with them, served as the main military force propping up the Papal States. But once France withdrew, it triggered a chain reaction: part of the Papal States' own soldiers also resigned. With the French gone, they weren't about to face off against the Italian Army alone. Given their varied origins and different homelands, none felt compelled to go down with the Papal States. Working under the French had been one thing, but no one wanted to fight Italy by themselves.
The more Pius IX pondered it, the more anxious he became. He hurriedly summoned Freud, the Austro-Hungarian envoy.
…
Before long, Freud, who had been in the embassy, was led by a bishop to Pius IX.
"Mr. Freud! Since releasing our statement yesterday, I've had nothing but worry and apprehension. Your country vows to guarantee the Papal States' independence, but might it all just be rhetoric? The Kingdom of Italy is sharpening its blade, and we cannot stand alone against its army."
Freud smiled knowingly. He had been waiting for the Pope to raise this question. Yesterday, when he met Pius IX—who was already on the brink of despair—just mentioning a few conditions had led the Pope to agree at once. But upon reflection, Pius IX realized that without troops on the ground, how could Austria's promises mean anything?
"Your Holiness needn't concern yourself," Freud replied in an unhurried tone.
"I… I'm not anxious for myself. Rather, Rome is the holy city for all the faithful, and your empire's citizens are also children of God. The Kingdom of Italy's ambitions are known far and wide. I am fretting day and night on behalf of all who hold faith in our Lord."
Although the Papal States had declined, the Pope theoretically still ranked as the most exalted figure in all Europe (assuming one disregarded the Russian Orthodox Patriarch), so it wouldn't do to appear too meek. In other words, if the Pope was now asking for Austria-Hungary's intervention, it wasn't truly a request but rather a duty that a Catholic power owed him. He would "stand tall while asking for a meal," so to speak.
"Your Holiness, I realize you wish to discuss the matter of the army," Freud said. "On that, I can only say the Kingdom of Italy's schemes will fail. Austria-Hungary has already prepared a plan. All you need to do now is follow our arrangements."
"A plan…" Pius IX seized upon the key word, but all that promised was that Italy's plan to annex the Papal States would fail. How exactly they would carry it out remained vague.
"Mr. Freud," the Pope pressed, "how does Austria-Hungary plan to thwart Italy? If they only threaten Italy in Venice and Lombardy, that won't help. Even if you won a few battles there, the Papal States would likely have fallen by then."
He had immediately thought of Venice and Lombardy, since any Austro-Hungarian move to block Italy must come from the east. If Austria-Hungary did manage to defeat Italy militarily, it could later force Italy to give the Papal States back, so that Italy effectively failed to annex them. Yet in the meantime, the Papal States would have been destroyed, and Pius IX's fate was hardly encouraging. Italy, with its diminished reverence for religious authority, might do anything in wartime—lock him up, or worse. And afterward, Italy could simply find a scapegoat to appease foreign public opinion. A dead man—namely the Pope—could not speak in his own defense. Pius IX had no wish to gamble on how merciful Italy might be.
"Far from it. Your Holiness," Freud said, "we came to see you as soon as the French withdrew precisely because we anticipated the direction of the Franco-Prussian War. By approaching you at once, we clearly have our own means to guarantee your state's survival. I assure you the Italian Army can never set foot in Rome. Not even once."
Listening to Freud, Pius IX suddenly realized that Austria-Hungary had known ahead of time that the French would withdraw—meaning that every little shift in Rome was under Austrian surveillance. If Freud could sound so certain, they must have real confidence in their plan. But what was it? Pius IX started thinking.
Abruptly, Pius IX had an epiphany: if Austria-Hungary was paying such close attention to the Papal States and had agents all over, it likely had infiltration within the Kingdom of Italy as well. Italy had only been unified a few years, with the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies, the Kingdom of Naples, and others absorbed along the way. Perhaps Austria-Hungary intended to incite rebels in those territories that Italy had annexed—once Austria-Hungary declared war on Italy, those groups might rise up to restore their lost states, fracturing Italy anew.
The more he considered it, the more plausible it seemed. Austria-Hungary had spent many years cultivating influence in the Italian region. Although the Kingdom of Sardinia had purged such Austrian allies from public life, the underlying strength they had built could not be underestimated.
Convinced he had uncovered Austria-Hungary's plan, Pius IX finally relaxed. It was a devastating tactic, and Italy lacked any good answer. They would have to use force to crush the uprisings, but they would also need to defeat the Austrian Army first, or they'd have no spare troops. With Italy short on manpower, even the Papal States' forces might be enough to hold out. At least for now, there was nothing to fear.
In reality, Pius IX was overthinking it. Had Austria-Hungary truly been able to stir trouble among Italy's annexed regions, Italy would never have unified in the first place. As for the so-called Austrian spies, they were really just meddling by Ernst.
And Austria-Hungary's actual plan to deal with Italy had nothing sophisticated about it. It would simply be solved by brute force.
Thank you for the support, friends. If you want to read more chapters in advance, go to my Patreon.
Read 40 Chapters In Advance: patreon.com/Canserbero10