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Chapter 390 - Alex's Vision

Alex looked at his in amusement, unable to hide his smirk. Clearly, all the customs fees and surging profits from this trade trip had gone to their heads, Ministry officials or not, they were still people chasing gold like everyone else.

"Oh, right, " he suddenly remembered, "how did the negotiations go? How many new trade quotas did we get?"

That part was crucial. He'd spent the past few days dealing with assassins and infiltrating underground societies, so now that he finally had a breather, it was time to catch up on what really mattered for the future of his business.

In most cases, the trade agreements negotiated by the Ministries of Magic across different countries are considered highly confidential. Understandably so, after all, if the numbers got out, it could open the door to abuse of power or backdoor dealings for personal gain.

But Alex wasn't just anyone. The British wizarding world had always been sluggish when it came to international trade, and now, with Wilson's Arcane Alchemica's products soaring in popularity, the Ministry had no choice but to start tailoring policies specifically around his growing influence. In truth, Alex had become something of an exception to the rule.

Barnabas, clearly energized by the topic, wasn't holding anything back. "Originally, we were aiming to expand the annual trade quota by just three to five thousand Galleons. Modest, really. But the distribution agreements you signed with those master alchemists, well, they gave us a huge boost in confidence."

He straightened up, his voice rising slightly with enthusiasm. "The deals you closed right there at the conference nearly hit 8,000 Galleons in confirmed sales alone. And when you include the tactical gear ordered directly by the Ministry, it pushes us close to 10,000. That's just Egypt. 

And yes, Egypt's a major magical trade hub globally, but this kind of number sends a strong message to every other wizarding nation out there."

Barnabas was practically glowing, talking like he'd personally made the sales. Alex, however, just raised an eyebrow, slightly amused by how excited he was getting.

"So what's the final number?" he asked flatly. "You're giving me all these projections, but I need hard figures. I've got to adjust production, maybe even buy another Arcana shaper."

Barnabas laughed at his no-nonsense tone but nodded. "All right, all right. Here's the breakdown. If we take Egypt's order as a one-year deal and look at other high-trade countries like France, Italy, and Germany, we're estimating at least triple the demand. 

That gave us enough confidence to push forward with a total foreign trade quota of 50,000 Galleons. That's double what the UK usually handles annually."

For Barnabas, this whole trade negotiation had felt like walking a tightrope, exhilarating but stressful. He'd gambled on Alex's influence, and it had paid off.

"Fifty, huh?"

Alex leaned back slightly, frowning. From his perspective, the Ministry was still playing it a bit too safe. In his experience, the demand for new alchemy products always peaked in the first year they hit the market. 

Novelty drove impulse buying, especially among early adopters who wanted to be the first to show off the latest magical gadget. It was like introducing radios to a world that had never even seen a Muggle speaker before. 

Households with the means would jump at the chance to own one. But once the novelty wore off and the market became saturated, things would slow down. 

Unlike food or potion ingredients, alchemical tools weren't consumables. Once you had one, you didn't need another, at least, not right away.

Alex had even deliberately limited the lifespan of his products to encourage replacements after a few years, but he knew that wouldn't completely offset the drop-off in sales. Most families would think twice before spending again, even if a new model came out.

And then there was the issue of piracy. He was under no illusions that once his products became popular, imitations and cheap knockoffs would flood the market. But he'd already planned for that.

Every item sold under the Wilson's Arcane Alchemica brand was priced with a high premium. It was part of his long game, building value and exclusivity up front so he could slash prices later without hurting his profits. When copycats eventually surfaced, he would initiate a sharp price drop, maybe 10 to 20 percent, catching rivals off-guard.

No other alchemy workshop would be able to compete with that. Unlike them, Alex didn't have to worry about labor costs. His automated assembly process kept production costs low. Combined with the standardized quality and specifications of every product he released, he could easily reclaim any market share lost to counterfeits.

He'd already run the numbers. The first two years after foreign trade opened up would be the golden window, peak sales, driven by novelty and curiosity. 

After that, the curve would flatten. Piracy would bite into profits. But when he launched the price war, sales would spike again. It was all part of the plan. All he had to do now was execute.

This was all within Alex's expectations. Based on his own projections and inferences, the initial trade quota of 50,000 Galleons still felt a bit too low. He had already spoken to Barnabas before the negotiations, telling him to go in bold and push hard. 

But clearly, he had overestimated the man's courage. Barnabas's natural caution had gotten the better of him in the end.

Still, from Barnabas's perspective, a trade quota of 50,000 was probably already a sky-high figure, especially considering it was an increase solely for a single alchemy company. It wasn't hard to imagine how daunting that looked from his side of the desk.

If tariffs were calculated at 30%, that quota alone would generate 15,000 Galleons in additional revenue, enough to cover nearly half a year's salary for the entire staff of the Ministry of Magic. No wonder Barnabas had been practically bouncing with excitement earlier.

"It's March now," Alex said calmly, running the numbers in his head, "which means we've got nine months left in the year. Fifty might cover it, for now. 

But there's a real chance we'll go over. If it comes to that, I'll have no choice but to start using quotas meant for other companies. Just giving you a heads-up, Barnabas."

Barnabas blinked, the smile slipping from his face. "Wait, what? You think 50 isn't enough?"

The poor man looked completely blindsided. That quota had taken everything he had to push through. It had been his comfort zone, his safety net, and now Alex was poking a hole straight through it.

"I did the math," Alex replied matter-of-factly. "I can fulfill the Egypt order within two months. Sales on their end will probably take around six to eight months to cycle through.

You're underestimating the demand in a brand-new market. The first year's always a vacuum, sales will move faster than you think."

Barnabas stared at him in disbelief. "Two months? Are you sure? That's a massive order. Don't you think you're being a bit too optimistic?"

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