Chapter 647: Italy's Gate Slowly Opens
Count Rheinfels seemed to guess what the official whispered to Bailly, raising his head proudly and declaring,
"I am confident that the Italian states will support our proposal."
Thus, the initial meeting ended in a tense, hostile atmosphere. Neither side achieved any meaningful results beyond exchanging cold stares.
Of course, negotiations of this magnitude were rarely resolved quickly; dragging on for months was not uncommon.
Bailly left the Hall of Peace without attending the ball arranged for the Austrian diplomats and hurried to report the situation to the Crown Prince.
Second Floor, Tuileries Palace
Joseph furrowed his brows as he listened to Bailly recount Austria's demands.
Francis II was proving to be as audacious as history remembered him—a figure who personally buried the Holy Roman Empire. He hadn't even completed his coronation yet and was already causing trouble.
This was a treaty signed less than two years ago! While Leopold II had cautiously sought Britain's help as a workaround, Francis was charging in, demanding a renegotiation outright.
Such nerve!
Joseph couldn't help but think that if this had been during Louis XIV's reign, this kind of provocation would have led to an immediate declaration of war.
Bailly continued,
"Your Highness, the Austrians also stated that if we do not accept their terms, they will coordinate with the Italian states to impose punitive tariffs on our goods. Furthermore, I've just received word that a 30,000-strong Austrian force has arrived in Tuscany for military exercises."
Joseph chuckled to himself. The Austrians do learn quickly; we hold one military exercise, and they immediately follow suit.
A thought crossed his mind, and he turned to Bailly.
"Did you say they plan to incite the Italian states to impose trade restrictions against us?"
"Yes, Your Highness. Austria has significant influence over Venice and Tuscany and close familial ties with Parma and the Two Sicilies. They may well succeed in persuading them to act against us."
Joseph smiled slightly.
"That may not be entirely bad news."
Italy had long been a battleground for French and Austrian interests, as well as a cherished "backyard" for France. During Napoleon's time, Italy provided immense economic benefits that supported much of his military expenditures.
Joseph had always struggled to find a justification for intervening in Italy, as its political landscape had stabilized in recent decades. Now, however, Austria was handing him the perfect opportunity.
Francis II has his endearing qualities after all.
Of course, losing access to the Italian market was not an option.
After a brief moment of thought, Joseph instructed Aymon,
"Please ask General Berthier to see me."
"Yes, Your Highness."
Turning back to Bailly, Joseph said,
"Mr. Bailly, do your best to delay the Austrian foreign minister for at least two weeks. We need to increase our presence on the Italian Peninsula."
"Leave it to me, Your Highness."
After further detailing his instructions to Bailly, Joseph dismissed him. Soon after, Fouché arrived hurriedly.
After saluting, the Director of Intelligence handed over a report.
"Your Highness, Russia has been making some unusual moves recently."
Joseph unfolded the report, the first line catching his eye: The Russian Imperial Guard's 14th Infantry Regiment has been stationed east of Minsk.
Fouché elaborated,
"According to our intelligence, over 20,000 Russian troops have been assembled around Ula, while an additional 14,000 are stationed near Kiev in the south.
"At the same time, the Russians are constructing warehouses in both locations, with large quantities of grain, ammunition, and other supplies being transported there."
Joseph's expression turned serious.
Having spent more than three years in military school and personally participating in war, he was intimately familiar with the mechanics of 19th-century warfare.
While troop movements could be attributed to training or routine deployments, the buildup of logistical supplies was a clear sign of preparations for war.
The Minsk-Kiev line could only mean one target: Poland.
I've done all I could. Despite delaying Russia's actions by more than six months compared to history, the inevitable was now unfolding.
Given Poland's strength, Russia would need to mobilize at least 100,000 troops to ensure victory. This initial buildup was just the beginning, and Poland needed to use the remaining time wisely to prepare.
Joseph asked Fouché,
"If Russia plans to invade Poland, how long will it take them to complete their preparations?"
"That depends on the scale of the war the Empress intends to wage," Fouché replied.
"If it's just to capture Minsk and its surroundings, it would take about three to four months. A full-scale invasion, however, would require at least six months."
Joseph nodded and asked,
"What is Warsaw's current state of readiness?"
"Poland has 67,000 regular troops and over 10,000 local militia. Their logistical situation is relatively strong, with enough weapons and ammunition for nine months and ample food supplies."
Joseph exhaled.
"They need to accelerate their efforts."
He knew Poland faced a two-front assault from Russia and Prussia. With Prussia expected to deploy over 50,000 troops, Poland would need at least 100,000 soldiers to hold its ground, even with the defensive advantage.
As they spoke, Berthier entered the room with Aymon, saluting respectfully.
"Your Highness, you called for me?"
Joseph gestured toward a chair.
"Please, sit. Let's first discuss holding military exercises in Italy. Afterward, we may need to convene the General Staff to strategize for Poland's defense."
"Poland?" Berthier raised an eyebrow. "Have the Russians started moving?"
Fouché interjected,
"Reports indicate that even on his deathbed, Potemkin was arranging supplies for Minsk."
Berthier nodded before turning to Joseph.
"Your Highness, what kind of exercises are you envisioning?"
"Are you aware of Austria's large-scale exercises in Tuscany?"
"Yes, Your Highness. I just received the news."
Joseph replied,
"We need to counter Austria's show of force in Italy."
"Then let's organize an even larger exercise in Sardinia or Modena," Berthier suggested.
Joseph, recalling his experiences in Silesia, shook his head.
"We don't need to deploy such a large force. A small 'surprise' will suffice.
"Send Count Ségur to Modena as soon as possible."
One Week Later
Central Italy, Duchy of Modena
Duke Ercole III of Modena sat nervously, shaking his head at the French envoy.
"Count Ségur, I've heard about your country's trade dispute with Austria.
"However, Venice and Tuscany have already declared their support for Emperor Francis II's proposal, and Parma and the Two Sicilies have indicated they are seriously considering it.
"To hold military exercises now might be too late…"
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