Thursday, February 13, 1997
In the depths of darkness, the only glimmer came from the distant lights of Brooklyn across the river. On the 31st floor of One New York Plaza, the trading floor of the Eldorado Fund was abuzz with activity, just like any other day.
"JP Morgan, 100 sold at 6.7!"
"Citibank just placed a sell order for 150 at the same price!"
"BOT — 250 bought at 6.7!"
"Lehman Brothers — 200 sold!"
"BO... no, 250 bought from SCB!"
Andrew, clad in a white dress shirt with suspenders, stood with his arms crossed, eyes fixed on the large electronic board where the baht chart flickered with frenzied movement. He muttered to himself,
"So, SCB is finally making a move."
SCB stood for Siam Commercial Bank.
Established in 1912 as Thailand's first bank, SCB had grown to become the nation's largest commercial bank, with assets exceeding 500 billion baht — more than 10 billion U.S. dollars.
Dan, the senior chief, replied without emotion, lifting a mug of strong, black coffee.
"Even if it's Thailand's central bank, defending alone against this kind of hedge fund onslaught is a tall order."
"True enough," Andrew agreed.
"Yesterday, they were caught off guard, scrambling with no clear direction. But today, it looks like the central bank is taking the lead. With foreign exchange support, commercial banks and securities firms — including SCB — seem to be closing ranks, like a well-organized scrum."
Andrew gave a small nod, speaking calmly, without surprise.
"They must have realized the gravity of the situation. Not having a response plan would've been outright negligence."
Just then, a familiar voice called out from behind.
"Andrew. There you are."
The two men turned to see Seok-won approaching, flanked by Landon and his personal secretary, Han Ji-sung. Seok-won was dressed in a navy suit, a silk ascot tied neatly at his neck.
"You've arrived," Andrew greeted him.
Seok-won acknowledged the greeting with a light wave of his hand, his gaze already fixed on the large trading board ahead.
"How's the situation developing?"
Dan set his mug down on the desk and answered promptly.
"As expected, the hedge funds are pressing harder than they did yesterday. In response, the Bank of Thailand is aggressively intervening, absorbing all the baht sell orders as they come."
With both hands casually tucked into his pockets, Seok-won scanned the baht sell and buy movements flashing across the massive board.
"How much baht has been sold so far?"
Dan, still standing, bent forward briefly to check his computer and replied.
"A little over 500 million dollars just today."
"The Thai forex market has only been open a few hours. If that much baht has already been dumped, then they're clearly hitting harder than yesterday."
"That's right."
Andrew, standing nearby, naturally joined the conversation.
"But as long as Thailand's foreign reserves still have some cushion, I don't think the government or the central bank will back down easily. They'll hold the line as firmly as they can."
"Agreed."
Just then, a staff member stood up and approached them.
"Prime Minister Muangsae Kidikaem of Thailand is currently delivering an emergency address on the exchange rate situation."
Dan glanced across the row of wall-mounted monitors lining the trading floor, quickly spotting a live broadcast on CNBC. He pointed toward the screen.
"There it is. Turn up the volume."
[...We have confirmed that behind the baht attack that began yesterday are greedy hedge funds, including George Soros. These forces are attempting to steal the fruits of Thailand's hard-earned progress over the past decades through violent and exploitative means. The Cabinet and the Central Bank will stand firm and fight back with unwavering resolve. Once again, let me be clear: we will never allow a forced devaluation of the baht at the hands of others!]
Reading the live subtitles as the speech was being translated, Landon turned to Seok-won and said,
"Looks like the Thai government is coming out swinging right from the start."
As they watched Prime Minister Kidikaem finish his statement without taking questions and step down from the podium, Seok-won finally spoke, his expression hard as stone.
"When a dog bares its teeth and barks loudly, it usually means it's scared."
Landon paused, then slowly nodded.
"Well, considering these hedge funds took down both the Bank of England and Japan — which are far stronger than Thailand — it'd be strange if they weren't afraid."
Seok-won listened to the anchor analyzing the prime minister's remarks in the background and replied evenly.
"In any case, now that the Prime Minister has declared an all-out fight, the Bank of Thailand will likely double down on defending the line."
"When the Prime Minister himself pledges to protect the baht, they'll do whatever it takes to avoid the shame of a currency collapse right afterward."
Andrew chimed in, picking up from Landon's shrug.
"On the flip side, the hedge funds will probably strike even harder — they won't want to lose the momentum."
"Either way, it's clear we're in for a fierce battle today."
No sooner had the words left his mouth than Tyler, the head of the forex trading team, stood up from his workstation — a nest of monitors and wires — and shouted toward Seok-won, headset still on.
"Massive baht sell orders are coming through in the futures market!"
Another staff member quickly followed up.
"Big spike in selling on the spot market too!"
Shouts erupted from multiple directions across the floor.
Seok-won turned his head toward the giant market board. Sell orders for baht were rapidly piling up in both spot and futures markets, and the exchange rate was plummeting — threatening to break below 27 baht per dollar at any moment.
He muttered under his breath, as if he had expected it all along.
"So the Prime Minister's attempt to show strength only ended up provoking the hedge funds further."
"Looks that way. It may have backfired worse than saying nothing at all," Dan added grimly.
Andrew, resting a hand on the back of a subordinate's chair as he watched the monitors, spoke up quickly.
"BOT has begun its defense as well."
Seok-won lowered his gaze to the monitor in front of him.
Just as Andrew had said, a flood of buy orders had poured in, absorbing the massive sell orders from the attacking side and halting the baht's fall. It was as if someone had grabbed the currency by the collar and dragged it back up, pushing the rate up into the 26-baht-per-dollar range again.
But it didn't last long.
The hedge funds came back swinging, dumping baht en masse and sending the exchange rate into another sharp swing.
As the intense tug-of-war over the 27-baht mark played out before them, Seok-won's eyes glinted with recognition.
"Looks like the Bank of Thailand has drawn the line at 27 baht."
"I think so too," Andrew replied.
Seok-won cast a subtle smile toward Dan, the senior chief.
"Timing looks pretty good. Let's make our move."
"Understood."
Dan signaled toward Tyler, the head of the forex trading team, who was already watching closely.
Tyler nodded and grabbed the mic on his headset, bringing it close to his mouth.
"Execute."
The traders, who'd been itching to jump in, sprang into action the moment the command dropped.
"Bought 15 at 6.9—no, 7.0!"
"Okay. Done!"
"Sold 21 futures at 7.1!"
Tyler, sleeves rolled up and eyes sharp, didn't quite catch it the first time and snapped back.
"Repeat that!"
"Futures—21 sold at 7.1!"
"Done!"
Still standing, Tyler kept his eyes locked on the six monitors in front of him, speaking into his headset.
"There's more volume on the futures side. Leave the spot market and focus on buying futures!"
With quick, subtle buy-and-sell maneuvers, Tyler skillfully rode the market waves, gradually building up their long position just as planned.
Seok-won watched him with a satisfied smile.
Meanwhile, on one side of the trading floor, Jung Hwan-yeop watched the flurry of trading with bated breath. He glanced at his monitor and saw the baht long positions steadily growing.
He leaned over and whispered to Choi Ho-geun.
"Looks like they're really going all-in on a long position for the baht. Are we sure this is the right call?"
"You heard the strategy meeting earlier, didn't you? What's with the sudden doubt?"
Jung scratched his head and sighed.
"I know, but the more I think about it, the more it feels like we're betting against the odds."
"Honestly, I think the hedge funds have the upper hand too," Choi said quietly.
"Same here," chimed in Hong Jae-hee, her hair pulled back tightly in a ponytail.
Truth be told, Choi Ho-geun was thinking the same thing.
When they'd had the early morning strategy meeting — before the Sydney forex market, the first in Asia to open — he'd been genuinely shocked when the decision came down to go long rather than short.
He'd gone back over the data carefully, thinking maybe he'd missed something. But no matter how he looked at it, Thailand's economic fundamentals were just too weak. It wasn't a question of if, but when the baht would be devalued.
"Even though the Thai government has stockpiled a fair amount of foreign currency, I doubt it's enough to hold off this kind of hedge fund onslaught…"
Although $38 billion was no small sum, it could vanish in an instant when you considered that over a trillion dollars' worth of foreign exchange changed hands daily in the international financial markets.
They didn't even have to look far — just two years ago, when hedge funds including Quantum Fund had targeted Japan, the capital they poured in had easily surpassed tens of billions.
That's why the current strategy was so clear: slowly chip away at Thailand's foreign reserves, wearing them down bit by bit until the government had no choice but to surrender.
It was a simple tactic, blatantly obvious to anyone paying attention — but that didn't mean the Thai side could afford to give up the fight. Even knowing what was coming, they had no choice but to take the blows.
"There's no way the boss… no, the President isn't aware of all this."
That thought stuck with Choi Ho-geun, especially because he'd once heard from Mason that the Eldorado Fund had been at the forefront of the yen assault back then.
Choi unconsciously found himself watching Seok-won, as if searching for an answer.
He spotted him across the floor — standing at ease, both hands tucked casually into his trouser pockets, surrounded by the fund's senior executives as he gazed up at the giant price board. And in that moment, all of Choi's doubts and concerns seemed to quietly dissolve.
"Has the President ever made the wrong call?" Choi asked, turning to his team.
Everyone shook their heads in unison.
"Never."
"He's batting a thousand," someone added.
"I mean, he's the one they call the 'God of Investing' on Wall Street, right? 'The Midas Touch.' That's our boss."
Choi leaned back in his chair, voice full of conviction.
"Then what's there to worry about? I'm sure he's got his reasons."
Jung Hwan-yeop let out a faint chuckle.
"Yeah, I mean… who are we, little sparrows, to question what the phoenix is thinking?"
"You're giving in awfully easily," Choi said, raising an eyebrow.
It was odd. Normally Jung would've been rambling on with what-ifs, but today he was strangely quiet. And that was somehow more unsettling.
"It's our boss we're talking about," Jung said with a shrug. "The man hits a home run every single time. How can we not trust him?"
"Exactly."
"I've never seen anyone like him," Hong Jae-hee chimed in, nodding firmly.
Yoo Seok-hyun and Hong Jae-hee, who had both witnessed Seok-won's brilliance firsthand many times, nodded emphatically in agreement.
Now visibly more relaxed, Jung rubbed his hands together with a grin.
"When I think about it that way, I'm actually excited to see just how amazing this play is going to be."
The three exchanged glances, then turned their full attention back to their monitors — determined not to miss a single second of the fierce battle playing out before them.