Despite the occasional incidents involving quite a few casualties, the Kumovians were slowly but surely recovering from the blow inflicted on them by the eager Uzumaki before the last great shinobi war, and were slowly but steadily building up the military strength of the village, clearly intent on taking revenge and displacing Konoha on the pedestal of the strongest of the great villages.
And let it be just them - spies reported on the tumult in Iwa - as the village's power was restored, calls for revenge against Konoha for the past defeat became more and more frequent among the cursed Iwa people.
Oonoki had managed to keep the situation under control for now, but another two or three years and a recovering Iwagakure could start a war again. Kirigakure had been treading on the territory of her current ally for a year now, while doing business with the Kazekage, but the fact that they would get into a bloody mess of a general war, even if they hadn't recovered from the last one, was not something to speculate on.
Danzo strongly suspected that Suna's leader was using the bloodthirsty neighbors to get rid of undesirable people and rivals to his position, but he couldn't confirm it - he hadn't been able to recruit a man close enough to power, and ordinary shinobi didn't know much about the underhanded squabbles of Suna's top brass.
According to the best estimates, the next Great Shinobi War would start in two to four years, when all sides would be fully restored and Konoha would have to fight on several fronts again. Of course, if one simply waited by the sea for the weather.
Unfortunately, even with the exact same reports reaching the Hokage's desk, Hiruzen is not expected to act decisively - he's more concerned with keeping his ass in the chair, which has already begun to wobble under the efforts of the clans. Too many of his longtime comrades-in-arms have gotten on the wrong side of the law.
And Leaf... Leaf isn't ready to fight against everyone. The clans are still strong, and the number of clanless meat is growing, but they can't compare to Iva, the Root hasn't had time to recover, and this time there won't be Uzushio to set enemies on to finish off the rest. Now the war would have to be fought on their own, and there was no hope for Suna, as long as they didn't stab him in the back and take advantage of the moment.
It was necessary to act now, while the enemies were still weak and not at the peak of their power, but thanks to Hiruzen's policy, Konohagakure no Sato had a reputation for peacemaking, not attacking first, which opened many doors in politics, allowing them to take orders far beyond Ho no Kuni and attract many small hidden villages to their side, using them as a buffer between the surrounding great villages, which was very useful, even Danzo recognized it.
But at the same time, it also served as a deterrent in cases where it was necessary to act first, as long as the advantage in strength would allow them to emerge victorious even under the most unfavorable conditions.
Of course, Shimura could organize a provocation in the current moment, not to mention the constant subversion of the enemy, but Anbu Ne was also far from his former strength and needed time to recover.
Now, with a stable source of income that exceeded the cutbacks in Konoha's budget by a factor of three or four, and a sufficient number of new recruits, the only thing needed was time to get back on track and ready for war. And after a year, you could slowly prepare the ground by making one of the great villages look like the aggressor.
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