The television broadcast of the fourth annual Victoria's Secret Fashion Show aired on November 16, once again on ABC. Despite being in its fourth year, the show's popularity continued to soar, with no signs of waning enthusiasm.
The biggest difference this year was that Simon personally did not provide the BGM (background music). However, due to the show's previous success, much like how the Super Bowl halftime show became increasingly coveted by musicians after Michael Jackson's performance, many artists now saw providing music for the Victoria's Secret Fashion Show as a prime promotional opportunity.
This year, the six themed segments of the show featured custom songs from famous groups such as the Backstreet Boys and Guns N' Roses.
Top-tier artists and supermodels, a powerful combination.
As a result, that evening's broadcast reached an average of 38.3 million viewers, with a peak audience of 46.1 million.
Both numbers exceeded the third show from last year.
Given last year's rise in viewership, advertisers had high expectations for this year's show, and the price of a 30-second ad spot soared to a record $1.65 million.
The production budget for the fourth show remained the same as last year, at $30 million, with a promotional cost of $20 million.
Last year's advertising revenue, at $51 million, essentially offset the combined production and promotional costs. This time, with the same budget, the show brought in $56 million from ads, marking a $6 million profit.
The real money, however, lay in subsequent VHS sales.
Last year, thanks to Simon personally providing a few of the songs, the third show sold around 16 million VHS tapes over the course of a year. It's expected that the fourth show would maintain similar sales, as many fans had developed a habit of collecting the tapes.
Occasionally, when Simon saw these numbers, he couldn't help but wish the internet era would never come. The open nature of the internet would inevitably lead to easier access to free videos of the fashion show. In fact, there were already online pirated versions circulating, though not yet on a scale threatening legitimate sales.
Simon began to understand why Warren Buffett openly longed for the days when there were only three major broadcast networks in the U.S.
Although public network market share in television had dropped to 60%, they still held considerable power. This was why the Victoria's Secret Fashion Show could compete in viewership with the Oscars. Fast-forward twenty years, when the public networks would be in decline, and the explosion of information would provide viewers with multiple ways to access the show. At its peak, the Victoria's Secret Fashion Show's audience would likely shrink to around 10 million.
If Simon had grown up during the era of public network monopolies, he might have turned into a stubborn old man resisting change.
Looking at the impressive sales of the VHS tapes, Simon couldn't help but wish time could stop. The decline in the home entertainment market a decade or two down the line seemed all too real.
Of course, time could not stop.
So, the only option was to move forward.
Adapt to the times.
The fourth Victoria's Secret Fashion Show aired on November 16, and the following day, November 17, marked the official start of the North American Thanksgiving box office season.
This year, Thanksgiving fell on November 23.
From November 17 to November 23, it was a full box office week.
Before this, The Conjuring 2, released during the Halloween season, had been in theaters for three weeks.
Without any major competition, The Conjuring 2 brought in $46.13 million in its first week. In its second week, it saw a modest 31% drop, earning another $31.83 million. From November 10 to November 16, in its third week, the drop expanded to 47%, taking in $16.77 million.
In three weeks, the film, which had a modest $25 million budget, grossed $94.77 million.
Breaking $100 million was imminent.
Even with the impact of new Thanksgiving releases, it was expected to add another $30 million to its total. The Conjuring 2 was on track to match the domestic box office of the first Conjuring film, which earned $129 million, with final predictions estimating around $130 million.
On November 17, the Thanksgiving box office saw three major new releases: Pixar's Beauty and the Beast (distributed by Daenerys Entertainment), Paramount's Cutthroat Island, and Sony's The American President.
Pixar's fourth 3D animated film, Beauty and the Beast, had a production cost of $70 million, $10 million more than The Lion King, but $10 million less than Toy Story 2.
Marketing costs were pegged at $30 million, and the film opened in 2,651 theaters.
Like The Lion King, Beauty and the Beast was a musical-style 3D animation film inspired by Disney's classics. After internal screenings, Daenerys Entertainment was confident about the project and allowed early reviews, with critics' embargo lifted on its Friday opening day.
Initial reports showed the film received an impressive 9.3 out of 10 media score.
An absolute classic, fully comparable to the original 2D version, which was once nominated for an Academy Award for Best Picture.
Hollywood's Variety magazine praised Beauty and the Beast for its "unparalleled 3D animation technology, perfectly bringing a magical love story to life." This echoed the general media sentiment, as Pixar's core focus was always balancing technical mastery with storytelling.
Historically, in 1995, 3D animation had just gained major attention with Toy Story.
However, with Simon's foresight, he purchased Pixar seven years earlier and invested heavily. By now, Pixar's technology had already reached the level of what it was in 2000 in the original timeline. For Beauty and the Beast, Pixar even incorporated advanced motion-capture technology to ensure realistic character movements, particularly for the human roles.
The result was a stunning visual spectacle.
The film's plot closely followed the version that Simon remembered, which was the first animated film to be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars.
A true classic was born.
Over the years, Pixar's rise had led other Hollywood studios to take animated films seriously. However, with Daenerys Entertainment's quiet influence, the Oscars still hadn't created a "Best Animated Feature" category, allowing The Lion King to be the first animated film to be nominated for Best Picture two years ago.
This year, the Oscars still lacked a "Best Animated Feature" award.
With the popularity of Beauty and the Beast, it was highly likely to become the second animated film after The Lion King to receive a Best Picture nomination. However, it was unlikely to win, given the strong competition from films like Braveheart and Apollo 13.
Meanwhile, Paramount and Carolco co-produced Cutthroat Island, directed by Martin Campbell. The film had a production budget of $100 million, with a marketing spend of $30 million, opening in 2,505 theaters.
However, things were already looking ominous.
Despite its high budget, Cutthroat Island had been kept tightly under wraps until its release, unlike Beauty and the Beast, which had previewed for critics and garnered positive buzz.
Hollywood insiders knew the truth: Martin Campbell had messed up.
The original Cutthroat Island, directed by Renny Harlin and starring Geena Davis, was an infamous disaster, ruining Harlin's career and setting a record for box office losses.
This time, with Simon's butterfly effect in play, Martin Campbell was chosen as director. Fresh off the success of Wonder Woman and Speed, Campbell was eager to prove himself. Despite contractual obligations with Daenerys Entertainment, he took on this big-budget project during his downtime before starting work on Wonder Woman 2.
However, Campbell's ambition to create an epic pirate film led to an overlong and over-budget production.
Alarmed by the debacle of Warner Bros.' Waterworld, both Carolco and Paramount grew nervous and began to pressure Campbell to speed up the process. The production soon spiraled into disaster.
Though the final cost was kept under control at $100 million, Campbell had clashed with the producers so severely that the film's quality suffered.
When the reviews finally emerged on opening day, they were scathing.
Critics lambasted the film for its "disjointed plot, poorly developed characters, and erratic pacing." Some even speculated that the negative reviews were part of a deliberate campaign orchestrated by the Westeros system to undermine competitors.
But the truth was simply that the film was a mess.
Early estimates put the film's aggregate media score at a dismal 2 out of 10.
When Simon caught a screening of Cutthroat Island at Malibu Studios that Friday, he concluded that it was even worse than the original Renny Harlin version. Despite the original being panned at the time, it still gained a cult following, and certain elements were later borrowed by Pirates of the Caribbean.
This version of Cutthroat Island, however, was beyond redemption.
As for the third film, The American President, it was a typical Hollywood production. Directed by Rob Reiner, written by Aaron Sorkin, and starring Michael Douglas, the film was a CAA package deal, telling the story of a U.S. president who hires an environmental activist as his official date for public functions. Naturally, the president is single and falls in love with her. The film ends with the "prince" and "princess" living happily ever after.
A perfect American political and romantic fairy tale.
With a star-studded cast and veteran filmmakers
, The American President had a budget of $62 million, despite being a relatively simple romantic comedy with no major action sequences.
Only a studio like Sony, perpetually chasing success despite repeated failures, would agree to such a hefty price tag.
Simon had seen the script early on.
Even with Daenerys Entertainment's resources, the project could have been produced for under $50 million, but Simon immediately rejected it.
Too expensive.
Additionally, Rob Reiner was beginning to show signs of coasting on past successes.
Simon had no interest in indulging old Hollywood big shots who were past their prime.
After sinking $62 million into the film, Sony seemed to have come to their senses, allocating only $20 million for marketing, and giving it a modest 1,677-screen release.
Thus, between the triumph of Beauty and the Beast and the disaster of Cutthroat Island, The American President went almost unnoticed. Despite receiving a respectable 7.1 media score, its lack of hype made it unlikely to attract a large audience.
Box office numbers soon confirmed these trends.
By Saturday morning, Friday's box office data was out, and it immediately ignited discussions.
But this time, the focus was not on Beauty and the Beast's success, which was expected, but on the brutal failure of Cutthroat Island. As for The American President, it barely registered: "Oh, Michael Douglas has a new movie? Hmm... Okay." Then the conversation shifted back.
On the first day of the Thanksgiving weekend, Beauty and the Beast unsurprisingly took the top spot, earning $15.91 million on its opening day. It was projected to gross around $45 million for the weekend and potentially reach $70 million for the full week.
As anticipated.
Daenerys Entertainment began its campaign for Beauty and the Beast's Oscar nomination on Saturday as well.
As for The American President, it earned a modest $2.97 million on its opening day, far behind Beauty and the Beast. It was expected to bring in around $10 million for the weekend and $13 million for the week.
Romantic films often have longer legs, so with steady box office results, it could eventually gross around $50 million domestically. Including international sales and other revenue streams, Sony likely wouldn't suffer too much of a loss.
Then there was Cutthroat Island.
Its opening day gross: $970,000.
Not $9.7 million—just $970,000.
In the well-established U.S. film market, audiences clearly had no tolerance for bad films, even if they were $100 million blockbusters.
Thus, despite its enormous budget, Cutthroat Island earned just $970,000 on its opening day.
It was expected to finish the weekend with about $3 million and its first week with around $5 million.
With an opening in 2,505 theaters, a $5 million first week would yield a per-theater average of less than $2,000, a level that usually signals a film's imminent removal from theaters. In fact, following the release of its opening day numbers, many theater chains immediately contacted the studio to see if they could pull the film early.
After all, it was Thanksgiving, and no one wanted to waste valuable screen space on a film earning less than $2,500 per screen. Given the exhibitors' eagerness to drop it, Cutthroat Island would likely fail to even reach the $10 million box office total of the original version.
A $100 million investment, barely $10 million in box office returns—a truly brutal outcome.
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